Saturday, June 30, 2007
Immigration Bill Thoughts, #1 - Complexity
One word used by Congress when dealing with large problems, is "complex." Most problems are not complex, they may be very large as the immigration issue is, but it is not complex. We have 12,000,000-20,000,000 illegals in the USA and borders that leak like sieves. What to do?
1 - Close the borders
2 - Enforce the laws on the books
3 - Find the illegals and identify them and make them carry identification cards
4 - Determine what to do about the situation.
As stated, this is not complex, merely large. If we can track a pound of hamburger back to the cow it came from and when, we can track humans. By refusing to use the term "complexity" as an excuse to perform a simple (but large) task, maybe we can get around to solving the problem.
Labels: immigration
Friday, June 29, 2007
SCBA gathering (Updated!!!)
Jeff from View from the Cloud invites attendees to then come to the Veranda Bar in downtown St. Cloud to hear his band play. He'll be the guy on the harmonica.
GCFB is at the corner of Highways 15 and 23. If you are coming from the Cities, take I-94 to exit 167B, Highway 15. Come to the first stop light (just past the "Welcome to Saint Cloud" sign) and you'll see GCFB there on the corner. You'll need to make a lefthand turn, then turn into the parking lot where you see Bed, Bath and Beyond and Chipotle.
Note: The MOB gathering comes July 14 at Keegans.
UPDATE: The guest list grows! Rep. Laura Brod has confirmed her attendance; we are "efforting" even more distinguished guests.
- View from the Cloud
- Psycmeistr's Ice Palace
- KNSI Hot Talk
- Marty Andrade
- Let Freedom Ring
- News With Views
- Speed Gibson
Put down that beer, let's go to the movies
This argument [of a link between movie violence and violent crime -- kb] assumes that the effect of a violent film is to provoke more violence. That is not clear. I understand that when people watch violent images in laboratory experiments, they become more violent...
But what you are not considering is this: when the local bully-boys are in the cinema watching UltraDeath III: the Revenge, they are not drinking lager or getting into fights. A new piece of research from economists Gordon Dahl and Stefano DellaVigna shows that when a violent film is on at the multiplex, violent crime falls during the evening and stays lower until the next morning. If a slushy romance is screened, the thugs go to the pub instead and mayhem ensues. Dahl and DellaVigna reckon violent films prevent 175 assaults a day in the US.
Here's the research.
Labels: economics
Not so icky after all
Whether this will help provide a "convincing demonstration" of a reduction in inflation risk remains to be seen. Consumer sentiment and the purchasing manager indices both beat expectations, indicating the economy is still a little stronger than we might have guessed. Given that the Fed staff at least is looking at constrained supply factors as its rationale for rising inflationary expectations, you might think inflation is still there for the worrying.
Labels: economics
Thursday, June 28, 2007
Let's make it 500
Most of the [New York Times review] was spent addressing cases that weren’t in the film, rather than addressing what was in the film. The author also claims that “professors, administrators and students say the national picture is far more complicated than that pictured in ‘Indoctrinate U,’” although I don’t know how they could know that, because none of those people actually saw the film.Off the IU website you will see that Minneapolis is currently second on the list of people who have signed up to see the movie, with 248 people. That doesn't include, I'd guess, folks like me up in St. Cloud. But, I want to have Minneapolis be number one. So, if you are a Minneapolis-based reader and you want to see this movie -- and after listening to this Final Word interview with him, you will -- click and sign up. Then we can watch it and give it a real review.
Labels: higher education, Minneapolis
This'll be icky
The statement appears to be unanimous. Data revisions announced today on PCE inflation -- the Fed's preferred measure -- moved up the rate beyond the assumed target of 2%. The WSJ Economics blog points to tomorrow's statement on May PCE as key.Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months. However, a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated. Moreover, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.
In these circumstances, the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.
The comment on "high level of resource utilization" appears to be the staff pushing back on the board, at least if you believe this story.
The Dow was up 50 when the news broke; I'd bet that won't last.
UPDATE: William Polley calls it nothing new and shouldn't move the market (around 2:24 when the Dow had rallied back to about +25.) Close: -5. He notes, I think correctly, that the bond market is leading the stock market here. (See also James Picerno's note on the yield on indexed Treasuries relative to GDP.) I'll agree with him that there's no sign yet, but if tomorrow's PCE numbers are bad, it will be icky. Or ishy, if you're from central MN.
Labels: economics
Thank you, Chief Justice
The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.From Parents Involved in Community Schools v Seattle School District No. 1. The Chronicle of Higher Ed characterizes the opinion as narrow, leaving both Grutter and Gratz in place. Still, that sentence from the Chief Justice will be valuable when perhaps a better case comes before the Court.
SCOTUSblog reports that Justice Stevens believes the vote for this would have been 0-9 rather than 5-4 if the Court of 1975 had heard this case. I wonder what he thinks thirty-two years of history has taught us about race-based preferences.
Labels: higher education
Why does the Twin Cities care about JOBZ?
Former state Rep. Rob Leighton says JOBZ discriminates against other businesses that don't get those tax breaks. Leighton is an attorney representing ten businesses and individuals who believe they've been harmed by competitors in the JOBZ program.
"The JOBZ program permits them to not have to pay real estate taxes, income taxes, corporate taxes. And you can imagine that if your trying to compete with a fellow business that's in the same area of business you are that would be a big disadvantage. So, each of these plaintiffs feel they've been directly harmed economically because of it. And they believe they should be treated equally."
As Leighton works for a St. Paul firm, I will venture a guess that his plaintiffs are in the metro area and thus ineligible for JOBZ. A different lawsuit failed last year because the plaintiffs -- also Cities-based, did not have standing to sue, nor could show harm in the form of higher taxes. I see nothing to indicate yet how this suit is different.
It's interesting: The argument goes that a metro area firm's tax burden rises because the government is making tax expenditures to support outstate economic development. If that sort of thing passed, could towns that did not qualify for, say, local government aid sue because they did not have access to that crack kit? Where would such logic take you?
If I was a lawyer trying to stop JOBZ, why wouldn't I find plaintiffs instead in areas that DO have JOBZ, but firms that had not been able to get access to JOBZ-designated properties? Then one might argue that local business property taxes rose because JOBZ had taken other property in the city off the tax rolls.
(Noted: I'm not a fan of the program. See here and here.)
iPencil
Here’s a hint: It is not Apple. The company outsources the entire manufacture of the device to a number of Asian enterprises, among them Asustek, Inventec Appliances and Foxconn.It turns out that for $110 of the $299 price, we don't know where those factor payments -- largely labor -- go.
But this list of companies isn’t a satisfactory answer either: They only do final assembly. What about the 451 parts that go into the iPod? Where are they made and by whom?
The globalization of production creates real problems for statisticians. For example, Varian notes, "[e]ven though Chinese workers contribute only about 1 percent of the value of the iPod, the export of a finished iPod to the United States directly contributes about $150 to our bilateral trade deficit with the Chinese," because final assembly is done in China. Yet China's value added to the process -- the $150 minus the value of all the inputs used to make the iPod -- is only $4.
As to Apple,
The real value of the iPod doesn’t lie in its parts or even in putting those parts together. The bulk of the iPod’s value is in the conception and design of the iPod. That is why Apple gets $80 for each of these video iPods it sells, which is by far the largest piece of value added in the entire supply chain.Apple gets $80 for the idea of the iPod. It's safe to say as well that nobody at Apple actually knows how to build an iPod from scratch. But that's true for pencils too.
Those clever folks at Apple figured out how to combine 451 mostly generic parts into a valuable product. They may not make the iPod, but they created it. In the end, that’s what really matters.
Labels: economics
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
How do you read this?
I'm positive Michael will disagree.
At any rate, Rep. Sviggum has been a great legislator, and his knowledge of the institution will be missed by both GOP and DFL representatives.
Labels: legislature, Minnesota
Private channel to Ahmadinejad
A wise man once said, "You can control prices, or you can control quantity. You can't control both."*
Evidence.
The price of gas is still controlled at $.10 per liter. (The story has some questionable conversion rates; they report 1000 rials/l., and the rial/dollar rate is 9276, the rial/British pound rate is 18,527.) The use of smart cards as a rationing device is rather new; the likelihood of cash black markets is quite high. These protests won't last long, only until the clever subjects of your country work out the new black market arrangements.Angry Iranians have torched petrol stations in protests against the sudden imposition of fuel rationing in one of the world’s most oil rich nations.
Youths set a car and petrol pumps ablaze in the capital The rationing was announced on Tuesday only three hours before it was due to begin at midnight, leading to long queues at service stations as Iranians rushed out to fill up before the clampdown kicked in.
...Iran has to import more than 50 percent of its petrol needs because of its low refining capability, despite being the second biggest exporter in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
To make matters worse, consumers are being forced to use smart cards to keep track of their purchases but problems in distributing the cards have delayed implementation of the plan, while pumping petrol into vehicles is only possible when the smart card is inserted into the pumping machine.
Mahmoud, my friend, the best rationing device in the world is the price system. Of course, that would reveal to your compatriots the cost of ignoring the West as it comes through sanctions that cripple your ability to refine oil. Tough choices, but that's why they pay you the big rials.
(h/t: Captain Ed)
*--I'm pretty sure I heard Art Laffer say this first, but I'm betting he got it from somewhere else. It's too common in economics to not have been around a long, long time.
Labels: economics
Is this unusual?
Federal Reserve policy makers disagree with their own staff economists, and a growing chorus on Wall Street, who say the U.S. economy can't expand as fast as it used to without pushing up prices.An interesting paper by Lawrence White -- OK, maybe just interesting to me -- points out that the staff of the Federal Reserve tends to have a status quo bias. Particularly for Board of Governors' staff, turnover is low and there's a tendency to protect the institution:The split, signaled in the minutes of May's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, may reflect debate over whether a slowdown in U.S. productivity is permanent. ``Many'' FOMC members were ``somewhat more optimistic'' than lower-ranking officials about the economy's speed limit, the records showed.
To repeat Fettig’s (1993) characterization of Milton Friedman’s view: “if you want to advance in the field of monetary research . . . you would be disinclined to criticize the major employer in the field.”If a particular Board of Governors (or perhaps more appropriately, a particular FOMC) should create extra inflation, it may not damage that board in the short run but it reduces the reputation of the institution in the long run. The Staff is more likely to safeguard those. The proponents of the more optimistic view (which is a little weird in this case, since as Barry Ritholz argues, that optimistic view on rates includes a higher probability of recession) can be wrong without bearing too much consequence, and if they are right their next jobs will have more prestige and more money. If they're wrong, they go back to, well, academia.
These incentives and filtering mechanisms may produce a result as if the Federal Reserve were deliberately subsidizing research that takes the institutional status quo for granted. This should not be surprising, nor is it scandalous. We naturally expect the research that any organization sponsors to tend to promote rather than to undermine that organization’s interests. When (say) the insurance industry sponsors a report on the advisability of federal subsidies for terrorism insurance, the sponsorship alerts cautious readers to scrutinize the research methods and findings for pro-industry bias. Raising the question of the Fed’s status quo bias alerts us that the same sort of scrutiny is appropriate to monetary policy research, to avoid employing a double standard.
Though when I look at housing (say, as James Hamilton and Mark Zandi did last week), I am tempted to think the "optimists" are right.
Labels: economics
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Where is the line?
Shortly after my 10pm update, Mr. Kimball emailed me from a student account here on campus. I confess at first to being surprised. He indicated he was enrolled in classes. The only way this can happen, as best I can surmise, is that he is enrolled for a class or more this coming fall. (Here's the automated way he can do that.) Due to data privacy issues, there is no way for me to tell that someone is an incoming student (or returning after some hiatus) unless they identify themselves.
When I decided in 2004 to join the NARN as a radio personality, I resolved that it had to be clear that I spoke on the air in a personal capacity. I try hard to avoid the impression that a listener thinks I speak on behalf of the university. I thought I had taken due care in establishing, within the rules of data privacy, that he was not a student and therefore unlikely to be seen as someone with whom I might have any professional responsibility.
Had Hal identified himself as a returning student before our Saturday broadcast, I would have hesitated on running the story and would certainly have been more tempered in my discussion of his role; I can understand the confusion it causes to think I may be criticizing him as a professor. Again, he has never been my student and given his course of study (identified publicly as a masters program in social responsibility) he likely never will. But my line is a little further out than that; the potential that criticism of a person is seen as my speaking officially to a student is over that line.
My obligation is to the university in this regard. To them, I apologize for any confusion I may have caused in mistaking Hal as an ex-student. While I believe I took due care to ascertain his status, it is nevertheless my mistake for which I will take responsibility. I have communicated my regrets to Hal, who has been gracious in his reply. I will write no more on this matter, and I will clarify my mistake on the air next Saturday.
Labels: NARN
Monday, June 25, 2007
Delivered
Labels: American Heroes
Let's review
A seat is available on the MnSCU Board of Trustees for a student from one of the four-year universities in the system (one of which is SCSU.) The current holder, Michael Boulton, goes off on June 30.
Chapter 136F of the Minnesota Statutes governs MnSCU and specific provisions are provided for the selection of trustees. 136F.04 covers the student board members' selection, assigning them "the responsibility for recruiting, screening, and recommending qualified candidates" to the board. They can recommend between two to four. The statute explicitly states that the governor "is not bound by these recommendations." The student association covering the four-year universities is the Minnesota State University Student Association (MSUSA.)
During the show we reviewed first the case of Luke Hellier. Luke is a graduate of St. John's University, has been active in Republican politics both on and off the campus, and has experience in SJU student government. I met him while he was at SJU and active with Students Fostering Conservative Thought; I have spoken as well to the campus' College Republicans chapter. Luke says he is enrolled for classes this fall at MSU-Mankato for a masters degree in public administration. He tells that upon speaking with Boulton, and realizing he met the requirements for the position, he decided to apply for the post. Using the Open Appointments process meant he filled out a form. He reports that last week, he was interviewed for the position. Nothing on that form indicated to him that he should speak to MSUSA for screening, nor did anyone from the governor's office when they interviewed him.
We also interviewed Adam Weigold, a candidate who went through MSUSA screening. When I asked how he knew of the post opening, he reported that as someone affiliated with MSUSA he was aware of the process anyway. How was the position advertised? I asked. He replied that it was up to campus student government presidents to make the position known to people on their campuses. While Adam was very supportive of Luke's candidacy, he felt that Luke should have known this process by finding the statute.
That's a fair enough point. But what I would ask is, when the statute says (136F.02) that "Three members must be students who are enrolled at least half time in a degree, diploma, or certificate program or have graduated from an institution governed by the board within one year of the date of appointment." (emphasis added), it clearly contemplates the applicant pool to include a student entering school. Nobody disputes this. And this would appear to be the case: The entering student would be a graduate student coming to a MnSCU school. We do not offer doctorates (yet) and master's programs typically take two years. So it's most likely that if grad students are contemplated to join the board, they would most likely join it at the very beginning of their enrollment in a program. Without the provision I italicized, it is unlikely that graduate students could gain the 4-year student seat on the MnSCU board.
Yet the system by which MSUSA announces the process it uses is exclusionary to those who would enter a program a few months after the announcement of a vacancy. It puts candidates like Luke at a disadvantage to insiders within MSUSA and the seven campus student governments.
If you think that's fair -- that there should be preference for current over incoming students, even if the incoming student has experience in student government from a non-MnSCU school -- you're welcome to argue that point. Please indicate how you read that into current Minnesota statute.
Enter last week's folderol from the leftist blogs inspired by Hal Kimball. Long-time readers of the Scholars are familiar with Mr. Kimball. He is a past student government president. During his tenure his student government helped get a man elected homecoming queen, interfering enough with the campus' student finances that its student finance committee quit en masse, and causing enough ruckus with the student newspaper to have its editor make Kimball the focus of his valedictory editorial, including these famous words:
Kimball is a whiny, two-faced, corrupt liar- all of the personality traits of a politician. He probably has a good career ahead of him.The career path was rather evident early on. The year before Kimball became president of the student government, SCSU's students voted to remove themselves from MSUSA. To do so requires legislation, so the vote was to bind student government to seek that legislation. Throughout early 2004 the debate raged, and when Kimball won election that April, he indicated he would still abide by the students' preferences.
Kimball and [VP Bianca] Rhodes [who also tried to quit as Kimball's VP during the finance flap in 2/05 but was persuaded to stay] intend to keep the pressure on, they said.But in the greatest about-face since Gomer Pyle, Kimball not only does not press for SCSU's departure from MSUSA, he becomes its chair. In a scathing editorial of Kimball's tenure, the campus newspaper notes that this is "similar to President Bush becoming the head of the United Nations after his term."
"We will still be working on the MSUSA issue," Rhodes said. "That is very important to the students and student government."
So those who think I might have been a little over-the-top last Saturday on my show should review this fellow who you have followed into your calumny over Luke Hellier's legitimate candidacy for the MnSCU Board. Is it really about protecting the recommending authority of MSUSA -- a body that Hal Kimball has both said he wanted SCSU students out of, and then became chair of -- or is it in fact about the politics of Luke?
After reading the facts above, and reading Hal's post, you decide: Does this look like the post of a 35-year-old adult that should serve on a board of MnSCU to you?
UPDATE: Michael looks at the reporting and finds it lacking.
UPDATE 2 (10pm): Since some people are missing key points, let's review again:
- I don't really care if Mr. Hellier wins or loses the Board seat. I think he is qualified, but it is reasonable to assume all three candidates are. Having not interviewed one and having only talked briefly to the other two, I'm in no position to pick. Nor is that my job: It's Governor Pawlenty's.
- Mr. Kimball is not a student at SCSU at this time. Having left the university, he is not subject to any special consideration from me as a faculty member. I checked this before agreeing to do the story on the show by establishing he no longer had an email account at the university. He has never been in one of my classes and his resume indicates he left the university in 2006.
- Reporting on his past at the university goes to motive. Mr. Kimball is a political actor in this issue; the post I offered of his above shows a political argument disqualifying his contention that the issue is about the MSUSA recommendation. Even in his questions he would ask of Mr. Hellier, he makes Hellier's work with the Bachmann campaign an issue. There is no political qualifications or disqualifications for a Board position. And his inconsistent position on MSUSA ("it's not your daddy's MSUSA") should call his judgment on the MSUSA recommendation into question. The target of his post is not Hellier but Pawlenty, and his willingness to smear Hellier with misrepresentations to get at Pawlenty is in fact part of a pattern of behavior.
- We are grateful for the listenership of the leftist blogs to our show. We are glad you found it entertaining. That is, in fact, what we do. We both inform and entertain. If leftists could figure this out, maybe they'd draw more than a 9% share of the talk radio format.
Labels: AM1280, higher education, Minnesota, NARN, Northern Alliance Radio Network, politics, SCSU
Do students have the right to advocate illegal acts?
The Supreme Court tightened limits on student speech today, ruling against a high school student and his 14-foot-long “Bong Hits 4 Jesus” banner."We hold that schools may take steps to safeguard those entrusted to their care from speech that can reasonably be regarded as encouraging illegal drug use," Justice Roberts wrote. "We conclude that the school officials in this case did not violate the First Amendment by confiscating the pro-drug banner." (Also from an AP report on the WSJ website, subcribers only.)Schools can prohibit student expression that can be interpreted as advocating drug use, Chief Justice John Roberts wrote for the court.
...“The message on Frederick’s banner is cryptic,” Roberts said. “But Principal Morse thought the banner would be interpreted by those viewing it as promoting illegal drug use, and that interpretation is plainly a reasonable one.”
My only reservation in the Court's decision is this notion that public school students are "entrusted to the(ir) care" of the school's administration. Truancy laws lead to a duty to attend school. When one is compelled to attend, can we really then attribute to the parents and administration some contract that involves a trust? While I have in the past advocated for a return to in loco parentis in universities, even public ones have to sell themselves to students and their parents. High schools do not have this requirement.
Labels: education
A wise man says
I said at the beginning that some legislators want to have their cake and eat it too.So why, do you think, doesn't the DFL do this?
What did I mean? Simply this: If big-spending legislators want to have inflation included in current forecasts, all they need do is pass laws mandating that all programs get automatic inflationary increases.
Personally, I think this would be a terrible idea. Yet even big-spending legislators are unwilling to propose this, in part because they might have to make unpopular spending cuts the following year if there was not enough tax revenue.And to those who think having inflation would the budgeting easier, Knoblach also has some tough words:
It is far easier to advocate for a forecast that assumes everyone gets an inflationary increase, than to have to make the tough choices that might come if you pass laws that actually give one.
Most recipients of state tax dollars assumed they would get an inflationary increase, and then added their wish list on top of that assumption when presenting their budget request.Having no inflation in the expenditure forecast, except for those spending items indexed by law, provides more rather than less clarity.
In addition, determining the actual budget base for an agency was confusing. Legislators weren’t always sure if the base budget numbers they received were the amount an agency was legally authorized to spend, or authorized spending plus inflation.
Labels: inflation, legislature, Minnesota
Sunday, June 24, 2007
Camels on the Tundra
There are two premier dogsled races: The Yukon Quest run from Whitehorse, Yukon, Canada to Fairbanks, Alaska (AK), USA; and the Iditarod, run from Anchorage to Nome, Alaska, USA. These races challenge mushers and their dogs and are a reminder of the strength of the human spirit exhibited by pioneering people of the past.
We absorbed the sights, sounds, and stories of three dog training teams: Susan Butcher, a multi-year Iditarod winner; Jessie, a musher and trainer from the Riverboat Discovery Tour; and Jeff King of Husky Homestead, a consistent top 10 finisher and multiple time winner of the Iditarod and the Yukon Quest.
These dogs love to run. You can feel it in the air: when they are hitched to ATVs for practice runs, when their trainers unhook them from their private dog territory. At the Susan Butcher training home, the ATV was parked with a dog team relaxing in place in front of the ATV. After we were told some of the basics, one of the trainers walked to the front of the dog line - they became exuberant, jumping up and down, pawing at the ground! The trainers hitched each dog to its respective place on the team line. The musher returned to the ATV and these dogs were raring to go. All others not hitched were excited, too. "Take me, take me," each seemed to be saying. Once the command to "go" was given, they shot out of the compound.
We learned from each meeting with a musher. These lean dogs weigh 40-70 pounds, think of marathon runners, not sprinters. They love to train. They consume about 1500 calories on a regular non-racing season day. When they start winter race-training, their consumption increases to 4000-5000 calories per day. On the trail during a big race, they can consume up to 10,000 calories a day! Their needs come first, period.
We asked about water - these dogs have a biological process whereby they convert the mushy race meals (comprised of dog food, protein, fat, water, etc.) into a "liquid" that can be drawn down during their running between the checkpoints on the racing trail. Hence, the title, "Camels on the Tundra."
Saturday, June 23, 2007
Alaska Trip, Soldiers
Our guide was delightful, informative, and an excellent driver. Much of the single, two-way gravel road through the park is one lane wide. The only access for most people is via a sponsored bus. The drop off on the outer edge of the road was incredibly steep at times yet being able to see the vast valleys carved by glaciers, the numerous runoff streams, hundreds of the 1000's of free-roaming caribou, 11 grizzlies, some with cubs, red fox, Dall sheep, and numerous smaller animals in their habitat abated the fear of white-knuckle driving. It was a truly magnificent journey.
We were provided with a substantial lunch of individually packaged items. Humans being what we are, ate the fruit, cheese, gorp, cookies, candy, sandwich buns and some of the tuna. However, many left (or could not easily open) the reindeer sausage and jerky. As the driver collected the leftover food, we separated the jerky and sausage for shipment to our guys overseas. When we told people why we were culling through the food bag, not only did they give their approval, but those who had kept their jerky and sausage for later personal use, gave it to us.
People want to help - often they just don't know how. Every time I have explained about shipping packages overseas to our guys, Americans have responded positively.
Friday, June 22, 2007
More and less of me
After that I have lunch at an undisclosed location, then Michael and I plot the Final Word at 3pm.
Sunday, I'll be on Race to the Right with Tony Garcia on KNSI, talking about blogs in Minnesota. That show begins at 1pm. Tony might keep me on for awhile, or I may annoy him enough to be shown the door by 1:10. We'll see. If I were you, I'd not be late.
Now the less: You may tell I am posting less on here right now than before. I had it in my head for some time there should be four posts a day (ideally, two AM and two PM.) Four. Why that number, I do not know. But if I didn't hit that number I felt I had shorted the pot.
While most people think summers are less busy for professors, for me at least summer is my busiest time. It's specifically the time I get to write professionally. And with a contract for a book in hand plus a number of obligations to journals and other outlets, hitting four is getting to the point where I feel pressures both to post and not to post. And when that happens, the blog has to get less attention.
So I've decided that, for now, the two morning posts will have to go, and the two afternoon posts will be most of what you see for the foreseeable future. If it costs readership, that'll have to be.
Labels: NARN, Northern Alliance Radio Network
Interesting two sentences
Our initial findings are that athletic scholarships have a public good -- they provide geographic diversity, ethnic diversity, economic diversity. But whether they make more students come to our institutions is a question that will require a lot more study.From an interview with Charles Ambrose, chair of the NCAA Division II Presidents Council, in answering a question on whether D3 programs could save money by offering athletic scholarships. The interview (for Chronicle of Higher Ed subscribers only) talks about the loss of membership in D2 due to "ticker envy". Phil Miller reports on how costly that envy can be to once-prosperous D2 programs who try to jump up.
Labels: higher education
Thursday, June 21, 2007
Alaska - Road to Denali, the Kenai and Other Spots
AK drivers are incredibly polite! There is minimal speeding anywhere - inside city limits, on remote roads, etc. Heading south, signs saying: "Illegal to delay five cars - must use turnout" are posted frequently. In other words, if you're holding up traffic, please get out of the way. I've driven tens of thousands of miles (honest) in this great country and I've never seen such a common sense sign.
The road to Denali, drops to two lanes a bit north of Anchorage. The turnout signs are not there but drivers, especially RV drivers, seem quite aware of their actions on the road - it is rare there are more than seven or eight cars backed up behind any vehicle. However, on this road, I experienced my first time driving in ruts - I kid you not - part of the two-lane road literally had ruts where cars were driving.
The immense areas of this state continues to amaze me. You have forests for miles on each side of the road, not 100' of planted trees to protect a view but miles and miles of uninhabited land. We have become so conditioned by our encounters with other people that it seems almost impossible to envision these vast stretches of land with next to no humans.
This post is a bit of an anecdote. The fish stories have to wait until I return and develop some photos from a disposable camera - if they turn out, well, let's say, I hope the true stories with them are interesting to you as to those of us who experienced the events.
Fools know Latin
David Strand, who describes himself as a DFL activist in Aitkin, asks in Latin where Governor Pawlenty is taking Minnesota.
At the election of Minnesota Republican Party officers, Governor Tim Pawlenty boasted about using vetoes 55 times during the 2007 Minnesota legislative session. It is remindful of the tale of the Roman Emperor Nero who played the fiddle while Rome burned.Been a long time since we heard "YOU'RE SCHOOLS ARE BURNING!!!" But we have in Mr. Strand someone else who thinks the measure of how much society cares is how much money it takes from taxpayers.
It might be appropriate to put the question "quo vadis," Latin for "where are you going?" to Governor Pawlenty. Since he claims that his vetoes saved Minnesota from the taxing and spending Democrats who control both state houses, where does the governor think he is taking Minnesota?Utter and complete hogwash. Gordon Tullock describes how little of government spending goes to provision of public goods, and how much is caught up in rent-seeking. Unless one feels the size and scope of government is determined by how much redistribution it does, there is little in the data to support this claim. Research in the international field by Alberto Alesina et al. (2000) , and those referenced by Dan Mitchell also show that after a point, government spending is a drag on growth.
There is much evidence to answer the question. First, the size and scope of government is normally determined by public policies.
All evidence shows that larger public sector resources translate into success of public policy goals. For example, nations at the high end of public spending have the best rates of most critical measures of human decency. Examples are poverty, homelessness, infant mortality, teen motherhood, abortion rates (especially for teens), violent crime, public school graduation rates, K-12 test scores, election participation, prison incarceration, average life span, energy consumption, modern public transit and economic mobility, the direct measure of how equal opportunity really is.Did you notice what was left out?
Wealth creation. About this, Strand offers not a strand of discussion. He attempts to say that if you oppose giving government more "resources" makes you in favor of greater poverty, lower test scores, etc., a logical fallacy. It never seems to dawn on him that before you can have additional "resources" someone must create them. How do you expect to get them? By deciding that the engine of progress is to be chained?
Labels: Minnesota, Pawlenty, taxes
Principals, agents and journalists
Why should journalists have to trade away their rights to political expression in order to work in the media? They are Americans, after all. Again, in this instance, it's exactly like the BCRA; it strips a fundamental right of political assembly and speech from a segment of American society. Regardless of how one feels about bias in the media, that approach is fundamentally wrong.There are, however, many rights we trade away in return for certain jobs. Athletes have contracts that prohibit activities that put their bodies at risk (Ben Roethlisberger says hi, Ed.) Some individuals who perform personal services give up speech rights as well, which is after all what campaign contributions are.
What's worth probing in Ed's question is why some news organizations would have rules against political contributions. I don't think it's necessarily an act of stupidity. News organizations sell themselves as agents (the journalists) to provide information to the principals (the readers) that is to be reliable. Because there is asymmetric information -- the journalist usually in fact DOES know more about a particular story than the readers, sometimes even more than the blogger -- there is a potential conflict of interest. The journalist can filter the news to turn a story that is sold by his bosses to be "truth" into propaganda. Media owners hire editors, ombudsmen, etc., to represent to the readers that someone has vetted an article and that it contains truthiness. To help with that representation, the newspaper may contract with journalists who sign pledges to waive their right to make political contributions, just as a ballplayer might waive his right to privacy and allow someone to randomly command a urine or blood sample.
While I see no reason why a journalist always must sign away that right to make contributions, I also so no reason why a media owner has to hire someone who would not sign a contract that banned the behavior as a condition of employment. The newspaper is the owner's property, and he has the right to entrust its reputation to those he chooses, since the loss of reputation is something borne by the owner.
Any such restrictions are of course imperfect; there will be chiselers. But technology will also influence the prevalence of such arrangements. When the blogosphere and other independent watchers can investigate who made contributions to whom, newspaper owners may feel more or less compelled to hire reporters with the restrictive covenant against contributions. If the reader can judge for himself the preferences of the reporter, he can adjust his reading as well. Since I would only sign the covenant in return for some consideration -- likely, additional money or perks -- the owner has an incentive to not impose the covenant if it is duplicative of private information produced by others. I can't predict which way newspapers and television news will turn in the age of abundant information.
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
Scrip for liberals
A pastor friend sent me a story of a different kind of dollar alternative. It isn't uncommon for bastions of progressivism to take up these alternative monies. Local business owners tend to think they will be helped by loyalty from residents. But this one is interesting insofar as they encouraged acceptance by intentionally devaluing the local scrip by 10%.
There are about 844,000 BerkShares in circulation, worth $759,600 at the fixed exchange rate of 1 BerkShare to 90 U.S. cents, according to program organizers. The paper scrip is available in denominations of one, five, 10, 20 and 50.But of course the people who receive the money are doing business with a devalued currency and cannot get outside suppliers to accept BerkShares, so they end up losing on the transaction.
In their 10 months of circulation, they've become a regular feature of the local economy. Businesses that accept BerkShares treat them interchangeably with dollars: a $1 cup of coffee sells for 1 BerkShare, a 10 percent discount for people paying in BerkShares.
Named for the local Berkshire Hills, BerkShares are accepted in about 280 cafes, coffee shops, grocery stores and other businesses in Great Barrington and neighboring towns, including Stockbridge, the town where Rockwell lived for a quarter century.
"BerkShares are cash, and so people have transferred their cash habits to BerkShares," said Susan Witt, executive director of the E.F. Schumacher Society, a nonprofit group that set up the program. "They might have 50 in their pocket, but not 150. They're buying their lunch, their coffee, a small birthday present."
Great Barrington attracts weekend residents and tourists from the New York area who help to support its wealth of organic farms, yoga studios, cafes and businesses like Allow Yourself to Be, which offers services ranging from massage to "chakra balancing" and Infinite Quest, which sells "past life regression therapy."
"The promise of this program is for it to be a completed circle," said Matt Rubiner, owner of Rubiner's cheese shop and Rubi's cafe. Some local farmers who supply him accept BerkShares, but he pays most of his bills in dollars.I recall that for some time, when the Canadian dollar traded at about 95 cents on the dollar, northern New England merchants took Canadian currency at par to the US dollar. It wasn't worth the bother to have someone give you that five cent surcharge. You didn't get foreign currency enough to make it overcome the transactions costs. But paradoxically, if you get the BerkShare more accepted, there will be more pressure to move the exchange rate back to $1=1BS. And that might lead the bank to stop converting BerkShares to dollars.
"The circle isn't quite completed yet in most cases, and someone has to take the hit," Rubiner said, referring to the 10 percent discount. "The person who takes the hit is the merchant, it's me."
The article portrays this as a liberal cause, but it's something other communities have done. Business people of left and right wings both like the idea of having local consumers purchase locally.
I think it's a transactions cost issue. What do you think?Stephen Burkle, president of the Ithaca (NY) Hours program, said the notes are a badge of local pride.
"At the beginning it was very hard to get small businesses to get on board with it," said Burkle, who also owns a music store in Ithaca. "When Ithaca Hours first started, there wasn't a Home Depot in town, there wasn't a Borders, there wasn't a Starbucks. Now that there are, it's a mechanism for small businesses to compete with national chains."
When I became a stathead
This became harder as Gary went through high school and experimented with drugs. I have never known what happened exactly, but apparently something he took triggered a psychological reaction from which he never really recovered. He lived with my aunt all his life, unable to hold regular work, and eventually died several years ago.
Still, whenever I was in town (the town of my parents' origin, not my own Manchester) I would try to stop by and see Gary, and share the passion of the Red Sox. Around 1980 or 1981, when I was in graduate school, I flew back to see family and stopped in on him. He had a book that looked homemade, and in it were a bunch of numbers and some writing. It was opened to a page titled "Boston Red Sox". It was a copy of the 1980 (or 1981 -- I really think it was 1980, but I can't be sure) Baseball Abstract by Bill James. As I read, I started to see numbers that I didn't associate with baseball before, like runs created or isolated power.
"Oh King," Gary said, "have you seen this book before?"
"No."
"You should read it. There are a lot more statistics in baseball than you see on TV."
Now, like some other guys who go into quantitative fields (which was why I first went into econ), I had been brought up on calculating batting and slugging averages. (I had kind of heard of on-base percentage, but not really.) As Gary and I talked after that, he revealed some intricate knowledge of the process of creating runs, breaking down getting on base, advancing runners, scoring runners, preventing runs, etc. We both admitted that while we first and foremost hate the Yankees, the guy that we didn't want to play an important game against was Earl Weaver, because that guy was smart. And Gary read things James had written about the Orioles and Yankees as well as the Red Sox. The conversation lasted the rest of the game.
I went back to Claremont a couple of days later. I found a copy of the Abstract, and bought it that year and every year thereafter. I still have nearly all of them (a second set, as my first set was water-damaged in storage years ago. I'm still missing a couple of issues.)
At that moment, my understanding of baseball changed. A shift in how one looked at the world of baseball. And in passing, a realization that the statistics we focus on sometimes in other areas, like economics, do not say what we think they say. It's motivated much of my work, including some writing I'm doing this summer. (As they say, watch this space.)
As years passed, any time I visited Gary's house we would talk baseball and Bill James. While Gary's gone, Bill James has gone on to help our Red Sox win the World Series a few years ago and become one of the 100 most influential persons, according to an interview with him this morning in the Wall Street Journal. One of the great things about James is that he is not a stathead; he's a writer who can talk and analyze baseball as it is, and understands the limits of his own insights.
People think they understand how to win in baseball much more than they really do ... The scouts see a lot of things that I can't see. And some of the things they see I have learned to see. But some of the things they see I can't see at all. And I'm not suggesting it's not real, it's just that I can't see it. There is no reason for there to be a conflict. The conflict exists only when people think they know more than they do.Some years ago I quoted James saying this:
I thought that if I proved convincingly that X was a stupid thing to do, that people would stop doing X. I was wrong. People would just keep saying X.For a writer, an analyst, or a professor, those are valuable lessons to learn. I give thanks to Gary for introducing me to that world.
Labels: baseball
One hops into 15B race
Behling is co-chair of the SD 15 Republicans BPOU, a young guy with good energy and trying to learn to blog. (Someone get me his blog address please, as I cannot find it.) I don't know him very well yet, but Mrs. S was familiar with him from the Jeff Johnson (SD 15 Senate) race and thinks highly of him, and my contacts with Jeff indicate he would make a good candidate.
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Chili and Chat wrap
Aside that, this was a great event. Rep. Tom Emmer is a passionate, humorous, and knowledgeable interview. Which is what we did, since if we had him on the Final Word that's what we would have done on-air. (We had him on once just for ten minutes to talk about Swansongate.) While he reviewed the session in a way readers of this blog (or Michael's) would be familiar, we also talked about the next year and here he had two things important to say:
- the bonding bill, which the DFL whiffed on this time by larding it up to the point that it was an easy veto target, represents the first chance the new majority has to pay off its supporters. One billion will hardly satisfy them, he said; we may need a contest to pick the number closest to their order at the take-out(-of-our-wallets) window.
- education got very little out of the last session, and will want some real fixing next period in return for their, um, investment. The Republicans, Emmer said, were steadfast in their arguments that more money comes with accountability attached. My observation: It will be interesting to see how the GOP caucus hangs together on this issue.
Let me suggest that SD45 Republicans have found a good way to get people out. Even with other events nearby and a spectacular evening for walking outside, I counted over fifty people in attendance at the event, on a Tuesday night on an off-year of the cycle. Other BPOUs take note, and start getting your people together. I'll come, but next time, somebody brings the vegetarian chili.
Labels: Emmer, legislature, Minnesota, politics
Nope, just playing hookie
Sure, we had no birdies, but we had sun and fun, and at least one of us had great shoes.Came home trying to think up something and instead saw my daughter wanting to go for a walk, and the blog lost to Littlest.
More tonight when I return from Chili and Chat.
Labels: AM1280, NARN, Northern Alliance Radio Network, politics
Sunday, June 17, 2007
Alaska Pipeline, Technology

Previous posts have alluded to technology’s role in the building of this engineering marvel. The scale and logistics to complete this pipeline was unbelievable. The actual physical installation was completed in 2.5 construction seasons.
When you look at the referenced pipeline photos, you will notice metal fins at the top of the vertical H supports. These fins act as coolants – they provide for the heat of the oil to be sent into the atmosphere in order to keep the permafrost from melting. The small squares underneath the pipe have been designed to allow the pipe to shift from side to side during an earthquake.
Original plans had to be adapted. In one area, the Gulkana River, the plan to bury the pipe had to be scrapped because of ice. A bridge was needed. There was no time to build a bridge – engineers needed to find one! They did, in Japan. Without this bridge, the pipeline would have experienced a one-year delay.
A second major hassle was constructing the pipeline over the 2,771’ Thompson Pass near Valdez. It was extremely steep, almost vertical and there was no alternative route. The engineers, creative again, devised an aerial tramway (think of a ski lift) to which they hooked the pipe to cables and “flew” it into position. Welders hung off safety harnesses to weld together the pieces of pipe.
A final test of the pipeline occurred in 2002 when a 7.9 (out of possible 10) earthquake ripped across AK’s interior. This earthquake, one of the largest ever recorded in the United States, did nothing to the pipeline – it held. No leaks, no breakage, no accidents, etc.
In conclusion, ingenuity, necessity, and talent built the pipeline. The caribou herds are increasing; the permafrost is protected; the revenues from the oil fund more than 80% of the AK state government budget and citizens are paid an annual bonus.
The knowledge gained from this experience shows that we can do anything we put our mind to doing. It is truly a wonder of the world.
Etched next to an Alaska-shaped piece of the pipeline are the words: “We didn’t know it could be done.” But, in true American fashion, we did it.
Decided to post - having problems with I'net access and photo transfer. More when I return.
Alaska Pipeline, Environmental Issues

The basic problem facing engineers was that there was no technology yet devised that could deal with permafrost, bitterly cold temperatures and the extreme terrain that comprises AK. In addition, environmental and Native groups all lined up to add their concerns to the known environmental concerns.
Eventually all were addressed. The Arab oil embargo of 1973-74 drove home the fact that the United States’ dependence on foreign oil was an exposure we did not need. Alaskan native claims were resolved with the 1971 Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act. The Trans Alaska Pipeline Authority At was passed in November of 1973. It cleared the way for construction to begin.
Alaska’s permafrost underlays nearly 600 miles of the pipeline route. Oil comes out of the ground between 156-178 degrees F. Known methods of burying pipeline would have resulted in thawed permafrost which in turn would surround the buried pipe with a soupy silt/water mess. The solution: Move the pipeline above ground with H-shaped vertical supports (see photo at top of this post). On top of these H structures, you will notice aluminum fins. The fins act as a cooling system that pulls excess heat from the permafrost layer and radiates it into the air. This complex yet complete solution represented the first time a pipeline had been built above ground.
The H supports went in slowly, in fact so slowly the pipeline completion date was expected to last until 2010. However, again ingenuity raised its head. By changing the type of materials and processes used, the construction and installation of the supports rapidly increased. Eventually 78,000 supports were placed into service and the 2010 completion date was no longer an issue. These supports hold 420 miles of pipe above ground.
Photos often show the zigzag configuration of the pipeline. This unique design accommodates seismic activity (earthquakes) and the extreme temperature changes along the pipeline route. In addition, in the middle of the H supports, just above the cross-section of the H, is an approximately 4' bar that can move from one side of the H to the other. This horixontal flexibility also lets the pipe flex during an earthquake. Hence, damage is minimized.
A total of 380 miles of pipeline was buried underground. The depth ranged from 3-12 feet, depending on soil conditions. For pipeline buried in avalanche-prone areas, the underground components were refrigerated to protect the permafrost.
Labels: Energy
Saturday, June 16, 2007
A special guest on the Final Word
We are pleased to announce that Governor Tim Pawlenty will join us just after 3:30 today on The Final Word. Working in your garage? On a boat? Take twenty and listen in (well, you could listen to the whole two hours from 3-5, but I try to keep expectations reasonable.)Michael and I will have other stories during the rest of the show. And you have to hear what's up today on the NARN:
- Film critic Steven Hunter joins the Opening Act, with Brian, Chad and John, 11-1;
- Columnist Eric Black with the Headliners, Mitch and Ed, telling us how the Minnesota Monitor differs from Elba, from 1-3.
Labels: NARN, Northern Alliance Radio Network, Pawlenty
Friday, June 15, 2007
Since you won't give us tax money, we're taking your dog
In the wake of two severe dog attacks in St. Paul, DFL state Rep. John Lesch said Friday he will introduce legislation next year to ban five dog breeds in Minnesota -- chow chows, wolf hybrids, pit bulls, Akitas and Rottweilers.You wonder if legislators taste like chicken.
Under Lesch's proposed legislation, anyone owning one of the banned dogs would be subject to misdemeanor charges and face as long as 90 days in jail and a fine of as much as $1,000.
Two children were recently bitten in St. Paul by pit bulls that had reportedly bitten people before. And other dog attacks in Minneapolis and St. Paul have drawn attention this year.
"It's a very sweeping piece of legislation," Lesch said, adding that one of his colleagues in the House of Representatives, whom he did not name, had been attacked by a pit bull.
Lesch is, of course, an assistant city attorney in St. Paul. There's a law in place in Minnesota that prevents a city from banning particular breeds. So he wants to change the law so he can get rid of "dogs that are known to be aggressive," according to his spokesman. Yet neither the St. Paul police nor any other police squad interviewed for that article can show how dog attacks are increasing. If anything, they're down.

So consider yourself on watch, Rep. Lesch. Buttercup does not take kindly to people trying to ban her friends, and has recommended you to next year's silly bill contest.
I wouldn't mess with her if I were you. This is no ordinary Boston Terrier. She's got friends at biker bars, and they're already unhappy with that smoking thing.
Labels: legislature, Minnesota, St. Paul
Alaska Pipeline, Design
$50,000,000 invested, $0 return.
Well, if we can’t go through the ice, why not under it? Maybe submarines could take the oil south. Even flying the oil with 747 airplanes was considered. None were economically feasible for a variety of reasons. Prudhoe Bay is incredibly isolated - the only people are pipeline workers and nature. Though there is concern with this part of the country, it is barren and what we learned with the first pipeline would lead one to conclude that a second pipeline would do zero damage to the environment.
Back to the access and distribution problem of the 1970's. The only way that would work and could be consistently monitored was an overland pipeline. AK presents some of the most challenging terrain on the planet. However, ingenuity, persistence, creativity (and later discussed, adaptability) all contributed to one of the most successful engineering feats ever undertaken by man.
Labels: travel
Zygi played the Star (Tribune)
The Minnesota Vikings have tentatively agreed to buy four city blocks for $45 million from Avista Capital Partners, owners of the Star Tribune, as part of a broader plan to build a football stadium and develop surrounding land in downtown Minneapolis, sources close to the sale confirmed Thursday.It cannot be a good sign for the StarTribune's remaining employees when the parent company is cashing out the neighboring land and selling an option on the building they own. As I've noted before, the Anoka deal was sold to Zygi by Red McCombs because Zygi figured he was the better real estate developer. He now has a prime downtown property to develop what one person calls "another Wrigleyville." But he'll want state dollars to help him out. We'll see.
The Vikings, as part of the transaction, would also have a right of first refusal to later buy the newspaper's longtime main office building, though that block is not included in the sale. Sources close to the negotiations said the sale could be finalized within days but cautioned it could still unravel.
Really, really bad timing
The Palestinian summer celebration is a unique annual program that gives people from all over the world the chance to encounter the life and culture in Palestine in addition to donating some of their time to a local community organization through voluntary work and internships. The Palestinian summer celebration 2007 will take place in the Bethlehem area in Palestine, between Wednesday June 20th and August 18th 2007.I'm not liking that "voluntary work and internships" part. Sounds a little too, um, edgy to me.
Labels: higher education
When we celebrate the second-hander
Thus the happiness of our educational system depends not on getting differently-abled students to reach their full potential, but on the school board's member's ability to extract additional dollars from others. He looks not at the student but at the legislature. Would that one school board member, anywhere offer the bargain "Remove the requirements on teaching special education, leave that to us, and you needn't give us a single dollar." Why does this man have sixteen megabytes of information to lobby, rather than sixteen megabytes of information on how to educate? And why does our newspaper celebrate this?In a corner office on the fifth floor of the U.S. Bank building that overlooks downtown, St. Cloud school board member Jerry Von Korff has piled up 16 megabytes worth of memos, notes, graphs and charts about special education funding and the Legislature.
Getting legislators to stop shifting costs of special education programs to local school districts has been a quest that Von Korff, a teacher turned lawyer, has pursued for almost a decade.
In this, his fourth year on the St. Cloud school board, Von Korff, his fellow board members, the district administration and some volunteers are getting credit for generating broad-based support among other Minnesota school districts and education groups and for finally convincing lawmakers to assign additional state dollars to special education.
...Let's put it this way," Von Korff said. "A sense of panic has gone away."The Legislature took care of about half the problem, school officials and legislators said.
Do they ever argue for less regulation rather than more money?
Source of second-hander.
Spicoli does Sartell
Someone in the faculty or administration of that high school almost certainly read this beforehand. That person did no good service to this student. Instead, I bet s/he smiled at the Bueller reference.
