Wednesday, August 31, 2005

Economics of Katrina (pt. 1) 

Very busy day with college and department meetings and signing up a couple of majors. I noticed $2.80 gas yesterday afternoon after it had hung in at $2.55 throughout most of Monday. I needed a quick lunch and ran down to the store for an energy bar and afternoon carrots (I'm trying that for the busy lunches) and saw my first $3 gas ($2.989 for regular, $3.089 for premium.) A blogger in Pelican Rapids took a picture of $3.10 gas, and someone reported on the St. Cloud Times gaswatch page that a station down near the highway is asking $3.199. Current price at the local bulk distributor is $3.28, says another Times article. Late afternoon the newspaper called and asked for "expert reaction". "Are we going to $4?" "Effect on retail sales?" "Recession?"

Oddly enough, I'd done a post-deadline edit on the upcoming QBR that I might want to edit again, because I thought we'd get to $3 but maybe over the weekend, not today. So I hedged myself somewhat talking with the paper, guessing we have perhaps another 10% up from here. And given the reaction of the financial markets (Asia's up this evening as I write, and for once I'm running past the 11pm hour with Bloomberg on my TV rather than Fox).

Speaking of Bloomberg, they have someone already speculating on $4 gas. But I do note that crude oil supplies are up over year-ago levels. Where we're tight is on refined gas (down 13 million barrels versus same level last year). And while that probably gets worse short term, one person in the Bloomberg article says the problem doesn't appear long-run.

"Once the refineries start making the product you have to transport it,'' said Mark Routt, a senior consultant at Energy Security Analysis, Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. "The Northeast is less of an issue because we can get cargoes from Europe. Florida has a big problem because 60 to 70 percent of their gasoline is barged across the Gulf.''

Restoring power to the Gulf state refineries and pipelines is the biggest issue, said Chris Ovrebo, a broker with FC Stone LLC in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.

"Most of these refineries didn't sustain heavy damage,'' he said. "It's not going to take them six months to get back on line.''

One problem is that we're seeing some rationing of supplies from the refineries to independent distributors. Jim Feneis, who runs the local First Fuel Bank here in St. Cloud, points out that the large price swings this summer have made distributors gun-shy about holding inventories. This of course is going to exacerbate price swings in the short run.

James Hamilton points out that the EPA has removed the clean-air mandates for gas through September 15.

Those who have followed my discussion of these fuel standards will know that I see this as one bit of welcome news. In addition to allowing a greater quantity of usable gasoline to be produced, the EPA measure will create a more integrated national market in which it will be easier to get the fuel to those communities where it is most needed. I was worried that the interaction between the refinery outages and the patchwork of isolated retail markets would produce a logistical nightmare.
In addition, the government is using the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as we'd hope: to keep refiners with enough crude to stay operating. This should also ameliorate the price swings.

I'm still thinking $3.30 is the central tendency based on what I'm reading right now. $3.50 is possible but I just don't see $4 in the cards.

William Polley has a rundown of the recession talk. (He's also the source of the Park Rapids picture I linked at the top.) He says the talk is speculative and not well-formed opinion yet. I tend to think it's something you can model. I have one I use for training some of our masters students that I will have to play with. It has a linkage between interest rates and commodity prices. What caught my eye from Polley's post was this post from David Altig on softening of market sentiment for higher interest rates. I need to look more carefully at the oil price impact in the model, but I suspect markets (and Polley) are correct here. But with the 10-year bond hitting 4% today (4.03% right this second) you have to start thinking flattening yield curves. That used to be a predictor of recessions, but the relationship hasn't held as well over the last fifteen years or so.

The reason you'd cut interest rates (or more precisely, not raise them as fast) is because you expect retail sales to soften up. Retail stocks are getting beaten up this week, and that's because the pump prices are getting people to spend less in the stores. (And please, dear readers, beware the broken window.) So far, the news on consumer confidence has been good pre-Katrina. That might keep the hit to retail sales short-lived.

Note to my majors: Mark Thoma is trying to explain this in AD-AS analysis. Go read.

Fans from far away 

It is noted to me that Light Within, a blog from Pakistan, considers me and Tom Peters' site two blogs he reads daily. That's awfully nice company to be in. I note that I've had over 100 hits from Pakistani addresses, or about twenty times that from Armenia or Macedonia, two places I've posted from on this blog.

Concurrrrr 

A Jim Rome-ish shoutout to The Eclectic Econoclast, who finds non-sequitur of the day. In HuffPo, quel surprise!

Dahl out at SCSU hockey coach 

Just in from the St. Cloud Times, SCSU hockey coach Craig Dahl has resigned.
“It’s been with a great deal of disappointment and anticipation that I’ve reached this decision,” Dahl said Wednesday afternoon. “I’ve decided to resign to go into private business. I feel recruiting is the lifeline of the program and, with all the rumors that have been going around for awhile now. It was time for a change.”
The rumor mill has certainly run around on this campus, led in my view by the reporter of this very article. The relationship between the newspaper and the coach deteriorated with the team's play, and there has been little in the way of support from the AD's office or the president in support.

I will add that he has always recruited good students to campus. Some of his players have been economics majors, including a few that have gone on the professional careers in hockey. I hope his successor can continue the tradition of student-athletes.

Convocation week busy 

This is the week before we open the university to students, when everyone is in meetings, including me. Back ASAP.

Tuesday, August 30, 2005

I feel so stupid 

I had a few people write over the weekend about the lawsuit filed by Big Tobacco against the state of Minnesota. I thought about it for a day and while thinking Andy at Residual Forces comes up with a humdinger of an explanation for why the Pawlenty Administration used the 'fee' language: It increased the take.

It is a fee and not a tax because if it were a tax, the casinos would not have to pay it. It was a goal for this last session was to get the tribal gaming casinos to make contributions to the state. Just like the 3o-some other states get. Had the fee been a tax, the casinos would have been able to sell tabacco at prices much cheaper than the public stores, creating another advantage or monopoly for them.

This was similar to the state sponsored casino proposal, another attempt at getting the tribes to cough up a little dough.

I got to tell you, when I heard this my thought was "how the hell did I miss that?" As best I can tell, so did everyone else (take for example this article when Pawlenty first proposed the fee.) He's right that it would, and now it puts both Pawlenty and Hatch in a sticky place. Assuming the tobacco lawyers are correct here -- and it certainly looks like a good case -- the way out that's offered is to call it a tax. Hatch knows this makes good political hay so he'd want to use the defense, and says so. But here's the catch: If he does too good a job, he might win the governorship but not the money to spend.

Andy carries on from there to chastise fiscal conservatives, and I think he means me too.

If you worry-warts think things are bad under Pawlenty, just wait until Hatch resides on Summit Ave. There will be no debate over calling what he will do. He is going to tax the living begeezers out of us.

...So, stay home if you like. Spend the next few months before November next year, attacking Pawlenty and the Republicans. But in the end, remember that things will be worse under the DFL. Higher taxes. Higher spending. More useless trains. Bye Bye Second Amendment. Bye Bye parental notification. To name a few.
As opposed to now? Apres lui, le deluge? Not a great campaign slogan there, sir. Try this one instead: For what profit is it to a man if he gains the whole world, and loses his own soul?

We are not attacking Pawlenty. We are trying to help him find again the principles he showed us before. There's time for this to happen, but fall is here and the clock is ticking.


Your next MOB event begins in four days, 22 hours and thirty minutes 

Mitch, El-Dar and Saint Paul inform us that the next MOB gathering is scheduled for this Sunday, September 4 at 5pm, at Town Hall Brewery in the Seven Corners area of Minneapolis. Since the following day is Labor Day, no excuse exists for missing this on account of work.

Drop a note to one of those gentlemen and let them know if you'll be there.

The music of my senior year 

The problem with this meme (found via Mitch) is that the list we're told to use doesn't represent the hits we were listening to in 1975. I found this list far more compelling. I mean, there aren't many bad ones. See how few crossouts?

1 24 Bruce Springsteen Born to Run
2 62 Queen Bohemian Rhapsody
3 207 Bruce Springsteen Thunder Road
4 236 Aerosmith Walk This Way
5 252 Bob Dylan Tangled Up in Blue
6 279 Jonathan Richman & The Modern Lovers Roadrunner
7 296 Led Zeppelin Kashmir
8 351 Patti Smith Gloria
9 380 Steve Harley & Cockney Rebel Make Me Smile (Come Up and See Me)
10 419 10 CC I'm Not in Love
11 425 Augustus Pablo King Tubby Meets Rockers Uptown
12 451 David Bowie Young Americans
13 489 Roxy Music Love Is the Drug
14 539 Pink Floyd Wish You Were Here
15 702 David Bowie Fame
16 737 Parliament Tear the Roof Off the Sucker (Give Up the Funk)
17 793 Kiss Rock'n'roll All Nite
18 843 The Eagles One of These Nights
19 847 Donna Summer Love to Love You Baby
20 947 Fleetwood Mac Rhiannon
21 978 Shirley and Co. Shame Shame Shame
22 1027 KC and The Sunshine Band That's the Way (I Like It)
23 1043 Harold Melvin and The Bluenotes Wake Up Everybody
24 1096 David Bowie Golden Years
25 1125 Bob Dylan Hurricane
26 1129 ABBA S.O.S.
27 1180 Paul Simon 50 Ways to Leave Your Lover
28 1274 Loretta Lynn The Pill
29 1339 The O'Jays I Love Music
30 1448 Willie Nelson Blue Eyes Crying in the Rain
31 1530 Harold Melvin and The Bluenotes Bad Luck
32 1550 War Low Rider
33 1576 Elton John Philadelphia Freedom
34 1582 Aerosmith Sweet Emotion
35 1632 Television Little Johnny Jewel
36 1717 Pink Floyd Shine on You Crazy Diamond

Compare it to this gawdawful list we were assigned.
1. Love Will Keep Us Together, The Captain and Tennille
2. Rhinestone Cowboy, Glen Campbell
3. Philadelphia Freedom, Elton John
4. Before The Next Teardrop Falls, Freddy Fender
5. My Eyes Adored You, Frankie Valli
6. Shining Star, Earth, Wind and Fire
7. Fame, David Bowie
8. Laughter In The Rain, Neil Sedaka
9. One Of These Nights, Eagles
10. Thank God I'm A Country Boy, John Denver
11. Jive Talkin', Bee Gees
12. Best Of My Love, Eagles
13. Lovin' You, Minnie Riperton
14. Kung Fu Fighting, Carl Douglas
15. Black Water, Doobie Brothers
16. Ballroom Blitz, Sweet

17. (Hey Won't You Play) Another Somebody Done Somebody Wrong Song, B.J. Thomas
18. He Don't Love You (Like I Love You), Tony Orlando and Dawn
19. At Seventeen, Janis Ian
20. Pick Up The Pieces, Average White Band
21. The Hustle, Van McCoy and The Soul City Symphony
22. Lady Marmalade, Labelle
23. Why Can't We Be Friends?, War
24. Love Wont Let Me Wait, Major Harris
25. Boogie On Reggae Woman, Stevie Wonder
26. Wasted Days And Wasted Nights, Freddy Fender
27. Fight The Power, Pt. 1, Isley Brothers
28. Angie Baby, Helen Reddy
29. Jackie Blue, Ozark Mountain Daredevils
30. Fire, Ohio Players
31. Magic, Pilot
32. Please Mr. Postman, Carpenters
33. Sister Golden Hair, America
34. Lucy In The Sky With Diamonds, Elton John
35. Mandy, Barry Manilow
36. Have You Never Been Mellow, Olivia Newton-John
37. Could It Be Magic, Barry Manilow
38. Cat's In The Cradle, Harry Chapin
39. Wildfire Michael Murphy

40. I'm Not Lisa, Jessi Colter
41. Listen To What The Man Said, Paul Mccartney and Wings
42. I'm Not In Love, 10cc
43. I Can Help, Billy Swan
44. Fallin' In Love, Hamilton, Joe Frank and Reynolds
45. Feelings, Morris Albert
46. Chevy Van, Sammy Johns
47. When Will I Be Loved, Linda Ronstadt
48. You're The First, The Last, My Everthing, Barry White
49. Please Mr Please, Olivia Newton-John
50. You're No Good, Linda Ronstadt
51. Dynomite, Bazuka
52. Walking In Rhythm, Blackbyrds
53. The Way We Were / Try To Remember, Gladys Knight and The Pips
54. Midnight Blue, Melissa Manchester
55. Don't Call Us, We'll Call You, Sugarloaf
56. Poetry Man, Phoebe Snow
57. How Long, Ace
58. Express, B.T. Express
59. That's The Way Of The World, Earth, Wind and Fire
60. Lady, Styx
61. Bad Time, Grand Funk
62. Only Women Bleed, Alice Cooper
63. Doctor's Orders, Carol Douglas
64. Get Down Tonight, K.C. and The Sunshine Band
65. You Are So Beautiful / It's A Sin When You Love Somebody, Joe Cocker
66. One Man Woman-One Woman Man, Paul Anka and Odia Coates
67. Feel Like Makin' Love, Bad Company
68. How Sweet It Is, James Taylor
69. Dance With Me, Orleans
70. Cut The Cake, Average White Band
71. Never Can Say Goodbye, Gloria Gaynor
72. I Don't Like To Sleep Alone, Paul Anka
73. Morning Side Of The Mountain, Donny and Marie Osmond
74. Some Kind Of Wonderful, Grand Funk
75. When Will I See You Again, Three Degrees
76. Get Down, Get Down (Get On The Floor), Joe Simon
77. I'm Sorry / Calypso, John Denver
Killer Queen, Queen
79. Shoeshine Boy, Eddie Kendricks
80. Do It (Til You're Satisfied), B.T. Express
81. Can't Get It Out Of My Head, Electric Light Orchestra
82. Sha-La-La (Makes Me Happy), Al Green
83. Lonely People, America
84. You Got The Love, Rufus
85. The Rockford Files, Mike Post
86. It Only Takes A Minute, Tavares
87. No No Song / Snookeroo, Ringo Starr
88. Junior's Farm / Sally G, Paul McCartney and Wings
89. Bungle In The Jungle, Jethro Tull
90. Long Tall Glasses (I Can Dance), Leo Sayer
91. Someone Saved My Life Tonight, Elton John
92. Misty, Ray Stevens
93. Bad Blood, Neil Sedaka
94. Only Yesterday, Carpenters
95. I'm On Fire, Dwight Twilley Band
96. Only You, Ringo Starr
97. Third Rate Romance, Amazing Rhythm Aces
98. You Aint Seen Nothin' Yet / Free Wheelin', Bachman-Turner Overdrive
99. Swearin' To God, Frankie Valli
100. Get Dancin', Disco Tex and The Sex-O-lettes

There's just no way that second list represents the music I listened to.

UPDATE (8/31): I'm glad I'm old. I could have had Foot's list. He's right. I left music radio in 1983 to finish the PhD and get on with my real life. I could not have left at a better time; there are very few good songs between 1982 and 1993.

A short analysis of rising tuitions 

Richard Vedder describes the problem in one paragraph, and the reasons in six. The problem:
This fall's probable average 8% increase at public universities, added onto double-digit hikes in the two previous years, means tuition at a typical state university is up 36% over 2002--at a time when consumer prices in general rose less than 9%. In inflation-adjusted terms, tuition today is roughly triple what it was when parents of today's college students attended school in the 1970s. Tuition charges are rising faster than family incomes, an unsustainable trend in the long run. This holds true even when scholarships and financial aid are considered. One consequence of rising costs is that college enrollments are no longer increasing as much as before. Price-sensitive groups like low-income students and minorities are missing out. A smaller proportion of Hispanics between 18 and 24 attend college today than in 1976. The U.S. is beginning to fall below some other industrial nations in population-adjusted college attendance.
The reasons are a combination of five factors: rising demand; lack of market discipline; de-emphasizing undergraduate instruction; price discrimination; stagnant productivity and rent-seeking behavior. Competition is the answer, he says.
State legislatures have sharply reduced their share of funding for public universities, forcing some schools to slash costs, reduce bureaucracies, increase teaching loads, get rid of costly underutilized graduate programs and more. Some schools are talking of using buildings more than eight or nine months a year, or are cutting down on the use of expensive tenured faculty. Colorado is shifting funds away from institutions and into student hands in the form of vouchers, reasoning that the student-customer, not the producer, should be sovereign as in nearly every other transaction.

The evangelist of supply side economics dies 

Jude Wanniski, former editor of the Wall Street Journal's editorial page and the Saint Paul of supply side economics and coiner of the term, has passed away at age 67. His website always provided a great alternative view of the world economy and its politics. His influence on spreading the Laffer curve into the language of economicscannot be underestimated. Hat tip: Don Luskin.

Monday, August 29, 2005

You had to be there 

On Sunday I took three short videos at the NARN booth. One was practice of Mitch with the Wacky Chicken people (quick aside: why did they wear leather footwear? Inquiring minds want to know.) , the second was Mitch coached by the Chicken couple to lay an egg (like he needs help with this?), and the third was the three-course eating contest. The last file is a 76 megabyte mpeg, so don't expect to see it around these parts. I need to learn streaming video. The eating contest video is also very Blair Witch-y because I'm laughing too hard to hold the camera still.

A few pictures will have to suffice:

Liz of A Blonde Moment and Josh stopped by Sunday. I want Josh or Liz to send me the link to Josh's brand new blog. (Here it is.) Josh is off to training as a forward observation specialist for the Minnesota National Guard, and then to Iraq in March. (We've mentioned this story before.) Prayers for them, please. It didn't dawn on me until later that this may be the last time I see them as a couple before he goes to training and perhaps to deployment in theater. Great of them to share some time with us, including a little air time. (Liz, I'll grab the recording and send it to you sometime soon, promise.)


Chad interviews "Ingy", whom I am told is a Soucheray regular. He basically performed a good caller. Maybe he can join Phil from New Brighton and Zimbabwe Quentin as regulars to NARN. Chad is usually a dry wit, so that kind of expression indicates how funny Ingy was.

There were many motley bloggers in attendance, including Doug from Bogus Gold and some KvM irregulars. (Andy's not in this picture, he's out psyching up for his cri de coeur against fiscal conservatives. Or maybe just checking out the action. But he was there, friends, believe me.) The lady on the bench is contemplating blogging as Lady versus Aging, or Bogus Social Security.


Seriously, there were many fine fun bloggers around, including Around the World in 80 Days and Blogizdat (love this Andrew W.K. kitty animation, Muzzy!) and (I think I met him) Solablogola (and sorry if I got that wrong.)

And of course, the irrepressible NARN gang. This was a great weekend, and today's blogging brought to you by the birthday boy, who missed (and messed up) some of the Yecke blogging because he was having dinner and a movie with Littlest in celebration while Missus starts rehearsal for her next play. To bed with me, and Convocation in the morning. Be nice, and maybe I'll live-blog that clusterfarg.

Meanwhile, if someone wants to teach me how to post and create streaming video, I've got some damning evidence against Mitch...


Cheri Yecke leaves the race, the state (updated) 

(Note update in middle of post on character of chancellor position) Cheri Yecke has accepted a position as Chancellor of K-12 education in Florida. I just received this release from Yecke twenty minutes ago.
Cheri Pierson Yecke today announced that Florida Governor Jeb Bush has invited her to play a lead role on his education team. Yecke will end her Sixth Congressional District bid to help implement Governor Bush’s reform agenda.

“I am honored to have been asked by Governor Jeb Bush to be such a significant part of his education team,” said Yecke. “It is therefore with deep regret that I announce that I will no longer be a candidate for Minnesota’s sixth district Congressional seat.”

“I will be forever grateful to the many people who have given me support in this
congressional race. The volunteers and delegates who have worked for me, and the donors who have sent financial support, have served to create a strong and dynamic campaign. However, the opportunity to work for Governor Jeb Bush on an issue for which I am so passionate is an honor I cannot pass up.”

I am a bit shocked, though her bid at the Congressional seat was probably against long odds with such a deep field of candidates. She certainly must have felt the same to have dropped out at this point for a position that appears to be less than another commissionership. UPDATE (10pm): I got a note indicating that the chancellor's position is in fact identical to the MN Commissioner's spot. Their commissioner of education oversees both K-12 and higher ed. I regret that mistake. This makes the move all the more understandable. Moreover, from her bio from her soon-to-be-defunct website,
Dennis and Cheri are proud of their daughters and their new son-in-law. Their oldest daughter, Anastasia (28,) is a marketing executive in Miami. Their youngest daughter, Tiffany (25), is a doctoral student who is married to a Marine Corps Captain, Aaron Brooks. Aaron is currently deployed overseas in the war on terror.
And I believe Tiffany's doctoral program is also in Florida.


I am saddened, too, on a personal level, as I have come to know Cheri as a delightful and energetic mind with both wit and grace and conviction. She is not bashful about what she believes, and her forcefulness probably pushed a few people who might have supported her into quiescence due to the force of the people who attacked her. I know a few lefty bloggers who will be happy to help her pack her bags, along with the leadership of Education Minne$ota. She has that effect on people. But the woman was not for turning, as Margaret Thatcher said. A little more steel and a little less compromising ... actually, Cheri stood for the things we argue Tim Pawlenty now needs.

Governor Bush is getting a good person. And it's not like she took just any state's education policy position. Jeb Bush has made education a top priority among his initiatives with the A+ Plan and Voluntary Pre-K programs. It's a good state to be an innovator for education.

Good luck and farewell, Cheri.

UPDATES: Original post was unclear on the position she took because it wasn't specified in Yecke's release. Update reflects release of Florida DOE.

Republican Minnesota appears to have had the story before the Yecke release.

Competing claims of teacher loyalty 

I thank Kathy Kersten for stopping by our booth at the Patriot Saturday -- she's been a good friend of the show since our inception. She mentioned on air that her column today would look at teachers and Wal-Mart, a topic we've visited quite a bit here. But she's gotten out more and found some good stories to tell. And it isn't just low prices for all the Melissas of the world to get their pens for school.

A woman loading packs of ballpoint pens into her cart caught my eye. No, she didn't have 120 children. She was Karla Keller Torp, executive director of the Caring Tree in Bloomington, a nonprofit organization that partners with social service agencies such as the Boys and Girls Clubs to get school supplies to low-income kids across Minnesota.

Torp told me that 121,000 Minnesota kids live at or below the poverty level. Last year, Caring Tree outfitted 17,000 of them for school. Yes, she knew about the teachers' union boycott, but wasn't deterred.

"At the Caring Tree, we're trying to squeeze every dollar we have for the sake of the kids. Wal-Mart helps us leverage and maximize our dollars."

Torp pointed to the pile of blue backpacks stuffed into her cart. "We've determined that the starting price point for backpacks is around $9.98. At Wal-Mart, we've found great quality at a great price -- these are only $4.47."

Torp added that Wal-Mart supports the Caring Tree with discounts that reduce prices even more. "Wal-Mart's been a good partner for us for years," she concluded.

And for their employees?
I asked Abdikafi Ahmed, 22, a Wal-Mart employee stacking goods, what it's like to work at Wal-Mart. A native of Somalia, he's worked part time for four years while attending the University of Minnesota. "Wal-Mart is flexible and convenient," he said. "It's the perfect job for me." Ahmed pointed out that Wal-Mart has a policy of promoting from within. (According to a Wal-Mart spokesman, the CEO of the company's Sam's Club division, Doug McMillon, started out unloading trucks at Wal-Mart.)

Down the aisle, I met a full-time employee, Tom Walch, 55, who's worked at Wal-Mart only two weeks. He's satisfied with the pay, and joined partly for the benefits. Walch comes from a union family. "I figure it's your choice whether you want to work for a unionized company or not," he says. He prefers Wal-Mart's Open Door policy, which encourages him to call managers up the chain if he has a problem.
Your choice whether to work, and your choice where to shop. We have many claims on our time and talent and resources to fulfill what we want. Do we really want to take some of that to remove the choices these people are making? Do we really want to use them to help the teachers' unions squelch another supporter of school choice? Sometimes, apparently, not even teachers can justify that choice.

Your complaints are my fuel 

KC Johnson has at this Pittsburgh refutation of the notion of political bias in academia with more detail than I gave it. He documents the many scandalous refutations by the left (while in fact offering a couple that would not be scandalous but would warrant some research, such as conservative parents not pushing their children to pursue academia as a career choice.) By fanning the flames with their comments that "we're just f-ing smarter" or "we can never have too many" leftists, radicals and Marxists or whinging that they've had no effect on the three branches of government ergo the claim is false, they are allowing the issue to stay on the front burner.

To all of them, thank you. You help keep this blog in business.

UPDATE: Todd Zywicki has a comment on the Pittsburgh paper that works through the evidence. They should have asked him (or KC) on as a co-author.

Once again into the breach 

My former colleague Kevin McGrew notes that Charles Murray, laying low for years after the beating taken by the politically correct elites for The Bell Curve, has come out with a new article in Commentary in which he re-addresses the role of intelligence in shaping America's class structure. Influenced by the attack on Larry Summers after his comments on male-female differences were turned into an attack on him and eventually greenmail for feminist causes, he's decided to come back to the discussion.
The Orwellian disinformation about innate group differences is not wholly the media’s fault. Many academics who are familiar with the state of knowledge are afraid to go on the record. Talking publicly can dry up research funding for senior professors and can cost assistant professors their jobs. But while the public’s misconception is understandable, it is also getting in the way of clear thinking about American social policy.

One such premise is that the distribution of innate abilities and propensities is the same across different groups. The statistical tests for uncovering job discrimination assume that men are not innately different from women, blacks from whites, older people from younger people, homosexuals from heterosexuals, Latinos from Anglos, in ways that can legitimately affect employment decisions. Title IX of the Educational Amendments of 1972 assumes that women are no different from men in their attraction to sports. Affirmative action in all its forms assumes there are no innate differences between any of the groups it seeks to help and everyone else. The assumption of no innate differences among groups suffuses American social policy. That assumption is wrong.

When the outcomes that these policies are supposed to produce fail to occur, with one group falling short, the fault for the discrepancy has been assigned to society. It continues to be assumed that better programs, better regulations, or the right court decisions can make the differences go away. That assumption is also wrong.
Doing away with these assumptions, which Murray takes a good deal of time and documentation to work through, would bring about better research and better policy.
Thus my modest recommendation, requiring no change in laws or regulations, just a little more gumption. Let us start talking about group differences openly—all sorts of group differences, from the visuospatial skills of men and women to the vivaciousness of Italians and Scots. Let us talk about the nature of the manly versus the womanly virtues. About differences between Russians and Chinese that might affect their adoption of capitalism. About differences between Arabs and Europeans that might affect the assimilation of Arab immigrants into European democracies. About differences between the poor and non-poor that could inform policy for reducing poverty.

Even to begin listing the topics that could be enriched by an inquiry into the nature of group differences is to reveal how stifled today’s conversation is. Besides liberating that conversation, an open and undefensive discussion would puncture the irrational fear of the male-female and black-white differences I have surveyed here. We would be free to talk about other sexual and racial differences as well, many of which favor women and blacks, and none of which is large enough to frighten anyone who looks at them dispassionately.

Talking about group differences does not require any of us to change our politics. For every implication that the Right might seize upon (affirmative-action quotas are ill-conceived), another gives fodder to the Left (innate group differences help rationalize compensatory redistribution by the state). But if we do not need to change our politics, talking about group differences obligates all of us to renew our commitment to the ideal of equality that Thomas Jefferson had in mind when he wrote as a self-evident truth that all men are created equal. Steven Pinker put that ideal in today’s language in The Blank Slate, writing that “Equality is not the empirical claim that all groups of humans are interchangeable; it is the moral principle that individuals should not be judged or constrained by the average properties of their group.”
I agree with Kevin, who calls this "an important article that should be on the scholarly dialouge screen of most univerisities."

Costs of gas disruption 

It's worth spending some time this morning thinking about disruptions in oil and gas supply resulting from Hurricane Katrina.
``There is a long list of production and refineries out because of the hurricane,'' said Tom Bentz, an oil broker at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. ``The course is similar to what we saw with Ivan last year, which hit production for a long time.''
The markets today are rather holding their breath in wait. Hugh is concerned about $4 gas, but I don't think that will materialize.

Thinking about Ivan sent me back to the Energy Information Agency's "This Week in Petroleum" newsletter for the latter half of Sept. 2004. Here's the one from Sept. 22 and this from Sept. 29. What I learned from this was that the size of the spike in gas prices from Ivan was about 12%; 45 million barrels were lost overall over the six months after Ivan. There is much writing about inventories being so much lower now than then, but EIA reports inventories being up since the end of July, so we might expect about the same here. That would make gas check in around $3 a gallon, likely by the end of the week. (This morning's drive down Division Street here in St. Cloud showed prices at $2.519 for unleaded regular.)

Reuters reports (bottom item) that the Saudis will pump another 0.5 million bpd starting in September to try to make up the loss, but the crude they pump is difficult (and ergo costly) to distill to gasoline. And James Hamilton reports that oil is being imported already by a greater amount than was being refined, so there are stockpiles of oil on hand to send to the refineries, if they can operate.

Friday, August 26, 2005

Suggestions for a weekend trip to the Fair 

Are you going? We've already heard from Chumley that spaghetti and meatballs on a stick is a flop. And I'm sure you've heard the NARN will be there, as will the Strom Man and Woman. Food and fun and frivolity. Who could ask for more?

Me. I have a request. The Fair, alas, does not allow pets in the premises, and I'm travelling this weekend again with Missus and Littlest and Buttercup, the Scholar spokesdog. None of them have ever been to the Great Minnesota Get-Together, because they can't get together there with this no-pet deal. We need suggestions for getting BC looked after or brought into the Fair. Put them in the comment box, please, and we'll see if we can't get Missus off the schneid.

I'll be there, regardless, 12-3 tomorrow and Sunday. See you there.

Specialize, specialize, specialize 

Phil Miller follows up on my post yesterday about being yourself on the job. He and I share the job history of scatter-shooting the entire Job Openings for Economists looking for that first post. The problem is that you often end up in a job you don't necessarily fit well. Some people can sell themselves into positions they have no business being in. (Turns out his first post was as a forecaster, which happens to be what I was initially trained to do.)

Phil found that his comparative advantage was in part his willingness to work in the geography of the Midwest. My first break in international consulting was simply a willingness to work in Ukraine and be able to teach through a translator and get a message for researchers across to them. It was remarkably easy for me, just as Phil seems unfazed by high humidity.

I'm fortunate that SCSU was my first post because I found a good fit. I had absolutely no idea what my research interests were outside of macro and public choice. I even wandered a couple of years into sports economics, getting so far as a job offer from a Big 10 school as a sports finance guy. ("How did you turn that down?" you ask. Money ostensibly, but more just something in my head screaming "mistake!!!" God bless that voice; it has saved me more often than I care to admit. It remained silent when I agreed to go overseas.)

The advice I got from a dean long ago was "be known as THE expert in something, no matter how small. If you keep publishing, academia and the public will eventually find you." That ex-dean, who still lives near me, has a cigar out of my humidor any time he wants.

Find your comparative advantage -- that which you do better than you do anything else -- and specialize, specialize, specialize. You can trade for whatever else you need. It's not just the advice I give for international trade; it's an organizing principle for your own affairs.

Everyone has a niche. What's yours?

The union agrees to rationalize pay? 

Reader jw, a fellow MnSCU faculty, points out this salary study that was recently completed by a joint taskforce of MnSCU and the faculty organization. On its last page it has eight recommendations, the last three of which are fascinating.

6. explore the possibility of modifying the periodic salary equity studies conducted pursuantto the Master Agreement so that those studies consider external salary data in addition to the attributes of current faculty members, and;

7. consider creation of an additional process to allow for review-based salary increases at regular intervals under a process similar to that used for promotion in rank;

8. recognize that base salaries for new hires vary by discipline and use external salary data as a guide in establishing the initial salaries of new hires at or above the national average for the discipline, where appropriate.


That looks like market adjustment, merit pay, and recognition of markets in initial hiring. We barely have the third one in our contract now, and we do not have the first two. Are they serious? Back to dropping my head on the keyboard.

Keyboard impressions on my forehead 

I haven't posted today because I read this editorial in the StarTribune and fainted.

Contrary to the old chant about "sticks and stones," words can hurt quite a lot. Protecting American Indians -- and the larger public -- from abusive names and images seemed the noble intent of the National Collegiate Athletic Association's proposed sanctions against 18 schools that retain Indian nicknames for their sports teams.

Trouble is, the NCAA used a bludgeon rather than a scalpel. It proposed to ban the schools from using Indian names and images in postseason play or hosting postseason tournaments unless the offending names and images were covered up. It gave the schools until February to change their ways. NCAA President Myles Brand proclaimed this "a teachable moment."

Perhaps. As he suggested, most Americans underappreciate the tragic side of European settlement and the lingering harm to native people. His intent seemed to be to push Florida State, Illinois, Utah, North Dakota and the other institutions to regret not following the lead of Stanford, Dartmouth and other universities that dropped Indian nicknames a generation ago.

But teachable moments run both ways, as the NCAA has now discovered. Its mistake was to presume that all Indian-related nicknames are "hostile" and "abusive" to native people. That's not necessarily so. It's how the names are used that's most important.


OK, so it's patronizing insofar as thinking Native Americans need "protection" from a mascot. And it isn't necessarily true that Brand's motive was to punish those schools that did not submit to his jawboning. But to think that words actually matter, and that context matters -- this is a major victory in getting someone at the STrib to actually think. And it gets better.

Some names are plainly insulting (Redmen, Savages), and should have been scrapped long ago. Others -- Seminoles, Illini, Utes and Sioux -- are best viewed in context. Florida State's war chant and tomahawk chop seem to many to be in terrible taste. And to outfit a student in war paint as "Chief Osceola" astride an Appaloosa on the football sidelines is historically incorrect. But the Seminole Tribe of Florida has insisted that the school's traditions be kept, and the NCAA has now relented.

Other appeals are pending, based largely on permission given by local tribes. Illinois' tradition of dressing a student dancer in buckskins as "Chief Illiniwek" might not pass muster. But the school's nickname -- Illini -- comes not directly from an old tribal confederation but from the name of a river and state. Surely the NCAA is not suggesting the renaming of every river and the 27 states that carry Indian names.


Including North Dakota. It seems the STrib is trying hard to keep its chastising tone with its admonition of FSU's sideline practices, but finds itself estopped by its acceptance and support from the very people it is trying to protect. And contrary to the singleminded attack on North Dakota sports benefactor Ralph Englestad by NonMonkey, the STrib takes a more balanced approach.

The university has taken many conciliatory steps over the years to keep its prized Sioux nickname. Cheerleaders no longer wear buckskin costumes. Images of tomahawks have been removed from hockey jerseys. The school has had no Indian
mascot. Its logo is a handsome Indianhead designed by a noted Native American
artist.

Still, many Indians and others resent that a wealthy benefactor successfully used a lavish new hockey arena to blackmail the university into keeping its nickname and logo. The state's two Sioux tribes disagree over the university's sensitivity on these matters.


Again, trying to split the difference. At least they are wrestling with the issue. Our own university president has said nothing more about the latest events; the university's discussion list, which had PC hustler after hustler trumpeting the decision, has been silent since the FSU decision.

Female bassists 

I had lunch with a friend who enjoys music and favors female musicians. Since I played bass in a couple of bands while in college -- I was a guitarist but fell into the bass like I fell into the viola, because there weren't many and I could get into better bands -- he and I always have a discussion of great female bassists. His choice is Melissa auf der Maur, formerly of Hole (after Kristina Pfaff's death). She's quite good, but I was trying to devise a top five in my head and she didn't make it.

Tina Weymouth -- probably because Talking Heads '77 was out about the time I was playing the most.
Kim Gordon -- I'm so glad Sonic Youth got back together.
Carol Kaye -- and, oddly enough, mostly for her session work with the Beach Boys, which is not a band this professor listens to very much. Somebody sat me down and had me listen to Cabinnescence once, though, and that was it. Played for about everyone, which is a great reference.
MeShell Ndege'Ocello -- The Wild Night with John Cougar Mellencamp woman. Her solo stuff is terrific. Glad to see her back.
Rhonda Smith -- not necessarily for her work with Prince. Look at her solo stuff. There's a six-string fretless bass being used that I have no idea how I would play.

Honorable mention -- D'Arcy Wretsky (#1 Son will be upset she didn't make the list); auf der Maur; Suzi Quatro; Aimee Mann. I think my problem is that my references to bass are all 70s -- Entwhistle, Levin and Lake, Clarke. If that's the filter, you'll kick out the auf der Maurs of the world (and I'm sure I'm skipping some others of that genre) for the jazzier types. And none of these women are going to break a bassist top 20, not even Kaye who's usually considered the best female.

Thursday, August 25, 2005

Perspective on Churchill 

Jim Paine at Pirate Ballerina has made Ward Churchill coverage his only goal, and stepping back today he offers a devastating critique of the Denver Post's coverage of the recent news of the University of Colorado's preliminary finding that seven of nine charges against Churchill should be referred to a second committee for adjudication and recommendation for action against him.
Our outrage centers not on Churchill's spin of the story—which ignores the remaining seven allegations (mostly of plagiarism and historical fabrication), and instead highlights the dropping of the ethnic fraud charge—but rather the media's willing acceptance of that spin. No corporate flack, no sticky-fingered politician, no university president could ever expect from the media that kind of unquestioning acceptance of their version of the story. Yet this same media hands Churchill the first PR victory he has had since this story broke back in January.

Readers of PirateBallerina are already aware of the Denver Post's series of mash notes to Churchill..., and it should come as no surprise that the Post's coverage of the inquiry results followed the Churchill spin so faithfully that Churchill's attorney David Lane should have gotten a byline (with the actual content, of course, ghost-written by Churchill).

But that's no surprise; we've come to expect slavering adulation of Churchill from the Post. It's the Associated Press' equally-gullible coverage of the inquiry results that is far more troubling, if for no other reason than the AP story was picked up by at least a hundred newspapers and TV/radio stations. It was the AP version that most people have read or heard. Talk about a lie getting 'round the world before the truth gets its boots pulled on.
Jim is in no mood to link to the Post, so I have. (Ironically, its home page advertises is as "Voted best Colorado website by the Associated Press." Smoochie boochies for you!) The article's headline is "Tentative 'Victory' for Prof". The AP story runs in Newsday with the headline "School Drops Probe of Professor's Ethnicity." It take eight paragraphs to get a single sentence referring to the other seven charges going forward. The same story appears in the Chicago Sun-Times.

Jim continues:
Even the most humble small-town newspaper reporter knows that he can't uncritically accept a newsmaker's version of a story. It's necessary to find opposing views and perspectives, and when facts contrary to the politician's assertions are discovered, they must be dutifully reported. The same applies whenever someone says anything "newsworthy."

It's safe to say that the Denver Post is no small-town newspaper. Nor is the Associated Press.

Pity.
It's worth reminding our readers of the "uncritical" nature of the AP. John Hinderaker at PowerLine has covered this story for years regarding Iraq, the economy, and President Bush. This is just one more example for John's thesis that the Associated Press "is the nation's worst source of media bias."

Push technology that helps a researcher 

Economists don't have arxiv, which Henry at Crooked Timber postulates is the Next Big Thing in academic blogging. But there is something there in Economics Research Network, a clearinghouse of preprints and working papers in economics, and EconPapers, which is one of my first stops for researching relatively new (to me) topics. IDEAS uses EconPapers' database to link one paper to others that cite it. But what I like about arxiv is the possibility of getting delivery of these papers by rss feeds. I now use rss to hook up to the release data from the NBER. To get research papers that way too would be such a boon to my day.

OK, IDEAS guys, can you deliver this?

Be thou open 

In an article in the Chronicle of Higher Education today (I think this one is open to all readers), "Andy Jackson" publishes his struggle with creating a CV for an academic job without saying too much about his religious background. Concerned that some English departments would look askance at this working with Christian organizations, he tried a variety of strategies to express the work he'd done and the passion with which he had done it without revealing its religious nature. It's turned out not to have worked out well.
In hindsight, it seems that the various strategies I pondered to avoid bigotry were unnecessary and spiritually unwise. My two years on the market have convinced me that, at the application stage, the fear of bigotry is worse than the bigotry itself. After all, you never really know why a search committee rejects you at the initial stage.

At any rate, I couldn't see myself happy at an institution where colleagues secretly or openly believed that religious convictions made someone a less interesting and capable human being.

So where did that leave me? My reasons for going on the market had more to do with a sense of calling than anything else -- in this case, a calling to work at an institution with a graduate program. Furthermore, the surest way to know that you have conquered a fear is to face it head on, and for me, that meant trying the market one last time. That quest paid off: This fall, I will be an assistant professor of English at a public institution in the West.
His advisors told him to be open, and indeed he was successful when he finally was. It's sound advice.

Wednesday, August 24, 2005

Here's your Class of 2009 

Or 2011 or 2012, given graduation rates these days. Still, incoming students who are 18 or 19 have a different mindset, as pointed out in this annual list from Beloit College. For students born in 1987,

  1. Boston has been working on the "The Big Dig" all their lives.
  2. Pay-Per-View television has always been an option.
  3. Pixar has always existed.
  4. American Motors has never existed.
  5. They never saw Pat Sajak or Arsenio Hall host a late night television show. (Thank God!)
...which is a nice, relatively innocuous list. But Beloit has decided to venture into social commentary with the list this year, to wit:
31. There has never been a "fairness doctrine" at the FCC.

Judicial appointments routinely have been "Borked."

37. They have grown up in a single superpower world.

53. They do not remember "a kinder and gentler nation."

70. Jimmy Carter has always been an elder statesman.

75. They have always been challenged to distinguish between news and entertainment on cable TV.

Looking at previous lists I think I could find one or two like that (two years ago their last one was "Don Imus has always been offending someone in his national audience", which might be true), but they simply seem more common this time.

They don't want tolerance, they want power 

I love Wendy McElroy's columns, but I think she missed something intoday's entry on speech codes on campuses. She talks about speech codes and the new view of what constitutes tolerance on campus.
Parents may also be puzzled about why some universities oppose free speech instead of championing it.

One approach to an explanation is to view the phenomenon as part of a general societal trend that has pitted freedom of speech against tolerance as though they were enemies. This trend claims that expressing my dislike or criticism of the gender, race or lifestyle of others is tantamount to violating their civil rights.

The trend rests on a specific definition of "tolerance." For many, that means being broadminded. It means acknowledging the legal right of others to a dissenting opinion, religious belief or peaceful lifestyle such as homosexuality.

The foregoing definition of tolerance does not require stifling your own opinions or preferences, which have an equal legal status. It does not require you to personally accept what you tolerate. Defending people's right to be different doesn't involve taking them out to dinner and a movie.

The current campus definition of tolerance inverts the more traditional meaning and demands personal acceptance. Tolerance becomes the active celebration of "diversity" and toleration requires the suppression of the speech, views or peaceful behavior that supposedly hinder diversity by making "diverse others" uncomfortable. The others are usually members of a group that has been historically oppressed, such as women and are deemed to now deserve special legal protection.
But that's not tolerance. And they find tolerance a dirty word. Here's an example from testimony about gay marriage before the Canadian government last month by the head of a religious studies program.
All churches involved in this debate agree that gay and lesbian individuals have human rights and ought to be accorded tolerance — but tolerance can be given grudgingly. One tolerates because one has to in a civil society.

Equal marriage is about more than tolerance. In our society, marriage is an important, socially approved relationship.
Emphasis mine. They find separate marital institutionsthat confer the same rights as traditional marriage demeaning. Why? The anti-racism movement at its base has the goal of gaining power, of control of a majority which the "enlightened" find to be with illegitimate power. Tolerance does not transfer power, so they must pursue something more than that.

How long is your syllabus? 

Sorry to be late today, but we're beginning the period where more faculty are around, syllabi are being prepared, meetings are occuring, and in general summer is ending. (Sorry Tiger Lilly.) We have a limited budget, so we try to watch how many pages get printed. At some schools, we learn, printed syllabi are discouraged. I find putting the piece of paper in someone's hands vital. A syllabus is suppoed to be a course description and a contract between student and the professor. And, as Erin O'Connor notes, there's more.
Syllabi can be very revealing documents, and online syllabi that are expressly charged with replacing paper--and which must therefore be particularly detailed about assignments and so on--will be exceptionally so. As public concern about what really happens in college classrooms increases, online syllabi stand to become key documents in a debate that is hindered by an overall lack of documentation about how college teachers actually use their classrooms.
As an example, University Diaries discusses as well lengthy syllabi. My mentor used to give very long ones in graduate school but only a fourth of those articles listed were actually required, and truth be told, I didn't read even all of those. The recommendeds came in handy, though, when it was time to prepare for qualifying exams for the doctorate.

Anyway, the beauty of long online syllabi is finding nuggets like John Rosenberg does in this course from DeAnza College in Cupertino, CA. You can actually see assignments like this:

Week 8 Race and Higher Education

What should be done to level the racial playing field in higher education? There is an organization at UC Berkeley called BAMN (the Committee to Defend Affirmative Action By Any Means Necessary). A link to the BAMN website is here. On March 3 (Thursday) they are holding an all day teach in on affirmative action. Either go to this teach in, or read their website carefully to find out their position on affirmative action, what they think it means, why they believe it is important. (If you DO go to their teach-in, etc. for the day, you will get an extra 30 points of credit here.) After informing yourself on these issues, write a letter to the Governor explaining what YOU think should be done to deal with the issues of racial imbalance within the UC system.

And Governor's address and phone and fax numbers are provided for good measure. So this week we have faculty on campus preparing similar syllabi. One of our sociology professors was a member of a workshop several years ago that had this description:
The goal of this workshop is to share and discuss specific exercises, techniques, and resources which may assist us in integrating multicultural and global awareness into the sociology classroom. We will focus on classroom tactics designed to overcome student resistance to multicultural issues, the use of games/exercises in understanding the intersections of oppression/identity, the emphasis of privilege when teaching multicultural/global issues to dominant group members, and using the Internet and WWW as tools for multicultural/global education.

Tuesday, August 23, 2005

First and seventeen 

The NCAA has relented and will permit Florida State to keep the Seminole nickname.
"The N.C.A.A. executive committee continues to believe the stereotyping of Native Americans is wrong," Bernard Franklin, the association's senior vice president for governance and membership, said in a statement. "However, in its review of the particular circumstances regarding Florida State, the staff review committee noted the unique relationship between the university and the Seminole Tribe of Florida as a significant factor."

"The N.C.A.A. recognizes the many different points of view on this matter, particularly within the Native American community," Franklin added. "The decision of a namesake sovereign tribe, regarding when and how its name and imagery can be used, must be respected even when others may not agree."
So the NCAA has decided that there is a tribal veto: If you name your team after a tribe you must get agreement from the tribe. This doesn't help the University of Illinois because there's no tribe called Illini. (It also happens to be the state's name, but the NCAA isn't making the university change that yet.) The University of North Dakota has one tribe supporting and one opposing.

Peter Wood thinks the smaller schools will eventually be losers.

Indictment is victory! 

Ward Churchill's lawyere is a moron.
A faculty group has sent the investigation of University of Colorado professor Ward Churchill to the next level.

Seven complaints of alleged plagiarism, historical fabrication and other research misconduct by Churchill have been recommended for a deeper investigation, while two other complaints that were part of the original inquiry were dropped, his lawyer said. The report from the faculty subcommittee that had spent about four months looking into the allegations was delivered Monday, said David Lane, who represents Churchill.

The subcommittee made its recommendation to the faculty's Standing Committee on Research Misconduct. The next step is for that committee to decide whether to conduct a full investigation. CU rules call for the faculty group to study the recommendations and receive more input from Churchill before deciding.

...

"This is really a victory for professor Churchill," Lane said.

He pointed out that two complaints were dropped. And he claimed that the subcommittee members felt unqualified to pass judgment on the others.

The subcommittee, however, wasn't meant to make a final ruling on the merits of the allegations, according to the university's rules. Its job was to pass along its recommendation.

Still, Lane said, they felt out of their element.
Jim Paine politely calls this spin. I don't have to be that nice, and I won't. You went before a grand jury, who has kicked the case forward for trial. I'm not a lawyer, but that sounds to me like YOU LOST. And you're being tried on the things for which faculty are supposed to get fired, like plagiarism and research misconduct, rather than whether or not he "qualifies" as an Indian. And ignore the shabby little man from AAUP; he's paid to say those things.

The next step will take a few more months, but the case all in all is progressing nicely.

This is so not fair 

There ought to be a law that bans using cute kid pictures with economic analysis.

Lucky for you, there's not. Another economist blog that will pass me on some stupid ranking page somewhere soon. Pointed out by Bryan Caplan, dang it.

Singing for my gas tank 

I'm getting ready to write my part of the next Quarterly Business Report, and I was thinking about gas prices -- of course. I read William Polley's description of John Tierney's Simonesque bet, and I wondered what the price of oil is like when the numeraire good is labor rather than prices (remembering again Craig Depken's complaint about using real prices.) Here's what I got. The more surprising part of the story to me was the lefthand side of the graph rather than the right. That mid-1960s period is thought of as one for big cars, lots of energy consumption, cheap gas from Saudi Arabia, etc. Guess not.

The numerator comes from the Energy Information Agency, switching from leaded to unleaded gas at the last moment (when EIA doesn't report leaded any more.) The denominator is average hourly earnings of private production workers; it's the broadest measure. I didn't want an argument over using a generous numeraire by using compensation per hour, which includes nonwage benefits like health. I think the latter measure would make the story more favorable to saying energy prices aren't that high.

That's not to say people aren't spending more on gas. But this may be an increased demand for vacations along with the increased hassle of using airplanes, or it may be that families are demanding larger, heavier cars. But there's little doubt in my mind that it's foolish for us to continue to believe that current prices are an aberration.

And if you want to keep energy coming, you should like these prices. (h/t: Don Boudreaux.)

UPDATE: But you shouldn't do this. Courtesy Mises blog, where Pierre Lemieux has some similar thoughts.

Non-Monkey as petard 

I don't have to tell you that Scott Johnson's a brilliant guy, nor that he has a great understanding of criminal justice issues in Minneapolis. But to be able to use a Nick Coleman column as evidence for what is wrong with Minneapolis these days, ...that, my friends, is pure genius. Scott hoists the StarTribune with dispatch:
One might think that a column like Coleman's would prompt an immediate demand for the restoration of routine law enforcement in north Minneapolis. Today's Star Tribune, however, suggests that the city's biggest law enforcement problem is too many white officers...
Understand what Scott is saying about this article. The STrib is accusing white officers of allowing minority neighborhoods' windows to be broken, its corners to be filled with drug peddlers and purveyors of sex, because white officers don't care about those neighborhoods -- or worse, that those are the neighborhoods minorities deserve. Local NAACP leaders aren't asking whether the new cops will do the job that Coleman reports isn't getting done; they are turning it instead into both a jobs program and another attempt to accuse white cops of racism. But city leadership can't win: If they enforce the law they are preying on minorities; if they don't enforce they are ghettoizing them. Scott concludes:
Minneapolis badly needs a mayor sufficiently committed to "diversity" that he will take the political heat that is generated when law enforcement provides protection even to the city's poorest minority citizens.

The return of middlebrow art 

The most interesting thing in Terry Teachout's discussion of Costco offering art for sale on its website is that it was done before, in the 1960s, and the spokesman for Sears in its attempt to sell art in its catalog was Vincent Price.
Vincent Price is now best remembered for his supporting role in the classic 1944 film noir "Laura," but in the '60s he was a full-fledged movie star, albeit one who never got the girl--at least not while she was still alive. An elegantly campy gent who in his later years specialized in playing pardon-me-sir-while-I-cut-off-your-head psychopaths, Price was also one of Hollywood's most passionate art collectors, a former student at the Courtauld Institute of Art who had been well on his way to becoming an art historian when he abruptly changed course, went on the London and Broadway stages and became an overnight success.
I still will put down the remote late at night when I happen to land on a Vincent Price movie. He was doing Elvira before Elvira was cool (though not so much to look at); The Abominable Dr. Phibes is perhaps my favorite of the run of those movies to which Teachout refers.

But. In an era where a grad student's portraits of Alan Greenspan fetch thousands, why wouldn't we see art in middle class homes? If one is selling tickets to an opera, you certainly offer some tickets at high prices to some and at lower prices to others (maybe through a discount service, or rush tickets, or by some coupon.) There is also the matter of the prestige that comes from buying art in a gallery. I once bought rugs in an Egypt carpet factory outside Giza. It was an afternoon affair, with tea, a tour, and a personal display the likes of which I've never experienced since. I most assuredly paid more for these carpets than I would have walking through the Khan al-Khalili, but what I purchased was the experience. (You do wonder, don't you, when did we know I was going to buy, and why didn't I do the tea, tour, etc., and then head off to Carpets 'R' Us? Complex answer, probably having to do with custom, 'face', etc. But there was certainly a point where we both knew I was buying, and the question before us was how much would they extract from my bank account.)

We purchase life experiences when we buy art. Buying art from Costco is a different experience, to be enjoyed who will hang their art and remark "wasn't that much, bought it at Costco." You know these people, the women who compare how little they paid for their clothes versus those who compare how much. (Men do this too; it often gets tied into "Napoleon complex" or "compensation for small you-knows".) As discretionary income expands with an aging baby boom generation that has empty nests and no more pictures of kids in soccer and baseball on the walls, this is to be expected.

Qui custodiet magistri ludi? 

Here's a very skeptical article from MSNBC.com on whether the teacher quality measures legislated into NCLB are actually being enforced. It certainly isn't enforced consistently from state to state (to do so would have required federal oversight that even NCLB's strongest proponents wouldn't support, I think.)

Teachers can prove they know their content by passing a test or having a major in each subject they handle. But many teachers find those options unrealistic or demeaning.

So veteran teachers often qualify under a third option not available to new teachers — meeting a state standard of quality.

Many states use point systems to grade whether teachers are experts, giving credit for conferences attended or committees served on. Other factors include years in the classroom, teaching awards and job evaluations. Some states use gains in test scores by a teacher’s students; other say having a state license is simply good enough.

To teachers, the process is often confusing, burdensome and ill-focused. The law aims to make sure a math teacher knows math. But it does not measure a teacher’s devotion or ability to connect with students.
I agree with this, but to assess devotion and "ability to connect" requires some kind of review process. The question is always who is in the best position to perform the assessment?

My answer: Parents.

(h/t: Reader jw.)

Monday, August 22, 2005

bitcherquitchin 

Student complaints are rising in Britain, and faculty don't like it, says the Times (UK) Education Supplement.
Universities have been swamped by more than 20,000 complaints and exam appeals in the past three years as students assert their consumer rights in increasing numbers, figures released to The Times Higher reveal.

Hundreds of complaints were made about erroneous exam papers, inadequate facilities and cancelled classes. More unusual grievances include a formal complaint about a "dog in a classroom", concerns about an increase in the price of a cappuccino at a cafe, and accusations that an allegedly drunken drama tutor awarded higher marks to performances that included "sexual content".

Government officials and student leaders welcomed the findings as a sign that tuition fee-paying students were standing up for their rights.

But lecturers' union Natfhe warned that an unwelcome "commodification" of higher education was leading to a complaints culture that was diverting time and resources away from teaching and research while putting intolerable pressure on lecturers faced with often spurious allegations.

About a third of these appeals are found to have merit. Most of them are over grades. One concern expressed is that administrators are encouraging them. I got this link from an administrator here, who indicated she found the documentation "interesting". I think that the reason faculty don't like this "customer" model of students is that it paints them as service-providers and not the great fonts of genius they see themselves as. For example,
Kat Fletcher, the president of the National Union of Students, said: "With a funding system that increasingly views a degree as a commodity, it is hardly surprising that students are starting to view themselves as consumers."
I don't quite get the connection to the funding system, but there's little question that the consumer mentality and the decline in status of the professoriate are related. And given the faculty's desire to make education "more democratic", I don't understand why they're complaining.

Academic phrases and meanings 

One of my students sent this variation of an old chestnut. These used to be passed around by mimeos in the old days; my copy on my office wall came to me twenty years ago when I started at SCSU. I haven't seen one for a couple of years, and offer it as a service to new academics:

"It has long been known"... I didn't look up the original reference.

"A definite trend is evident"... These data are practically meaningless.

"While it has not been possible to provide definite answers to the questions"... An unsuccessful experiment, but I still hope to get it published.

"Three of the samples were chosen for detailed study"... The other results didn't make any sense.

"Typical results are shown"... This is the prettiest graph.

"These results will be in a subsequent report"... I might get around to this sometime, if pushed/funded.

"In my experience"... once

"In case after case"... twice

"In a series of cases"... thrice

"It is believed that"... I think.

"It is generally believed that"... A couple of others think so, too.

"Correct within an order of magnitude"... Wrong, wrong wrong.

"According to statistical analysis"... Rumor has it.

"A statistically oriented projection of the significance of these findings"... A wild guess.

"A careful analysis of obtainable data"... Three pages of notes were obliterated when I knocked over a glass of pop.

"It is clear that much additional work will be required before a complete understanding of this phenomenon occurs"... I don't understand it.

"After additional study by my colleagues"... They don't understand it either.

"Thanks are due to Joe Blotz for assistance with the experiment and to Cindy Adams for valuable discussions"... Mr. Blotz did the work and Ms. Adams explained to me what it meant.

"A highly significant area for exploratory study"... A totally useless topic selected by my committee.

"It is hoped that this study will stimulate further investigation in this field"... I quit.

How universities handle public relations nightmares 

If you've read around the blogosphere last week you might have hear the story of Carl Basham. He was a Texas native and resident until he went to serve two tours of duty in Iraq with the Marines. He came home to Texas and wanted to enroll at Austin Community College. Alas, the school told him, he no longer qualified as a resident of Texas because he hadn't maintained a domicile in the state. World Net Daily ran a story, Drudge picked it up, and bloggers were off to the races.

Undoubtedly, a public relations nightmare for the school, which found its way out by "getting new information".
We think this will resolve this situation,' said ACC President Steve Kinslow. 'We think this brings a nice resolution in that Carl is being treated well and ACC is also, of course, in compliance with state law. That's what everybody has been working for all along.'

Kinslow also announced plans for an ACC scholarship aimed at helping returning soldiers attend the college.
My NY Giants' secondary could use a few guys that backpedal that well.

Another college guide 

I'm a little perplexed by the new Washington Monthly College Guide. I certainly understand the criticisms of the US News rankings of colleges, and in fact agree with the idea that they are perverting some college decisionmaking (that universities undertake some decisions with an eye towards improving their place in the rankings.) But what I want to know is why parents would choose colleges for their kids based on these criteria? Examine their methodology.
We determined the Community Service score by measuring each school's performance in three different areas: the percentage of their students enrolled in the Army or Navy Reserve Officer Training Corps; the percentage of their students who are currently serving in the Peace Corps; and the percentage of their federal work-study grants devoted to community service projects. A school's Research score is based on two measurements: the total amount of an institution's research spending, and the number of Ph.Ds awarded by the university in the sciences and engineering. For both Community Service and Research, we weighted each component equally to determine a school's final score in the category.
They then add in a Social Mobility score that is based on Pell Grant use by students, adjusted for graduation rates. Someone who wants to root around in that scoring method may find something perverse in there, but I can't be sure.

At any rate, such a rating method seems to give a lot of credit to schools who send their graduates to the Peace Corps or the military. Thus a number of small southern liberal arts colleges -- Fisk, Wofford, Spelman and Presbyterian -- all fare very well in this ranking system relative to those in USNWR. Carleton, ranked #5 in USNWR for national liberal arts, goes to 30, behind both Macalester (16) and Grinnell (25). What I find odd is the idea that when parents are shopping for schools they should look at ROTC and Peace Corps as indicators of quality, or the number of PhDs in the natural sciences only. The guide appears to be much more elitist in outlook of what some liberals in DC think schools should do rather than what parents would want. Parents might wish to use instead ISI's Choosing the Right College.

Saturday, August 20, 2005

Can't you people read? 

Bless me if the Deborah Rybak Caufield column we talked about on air didn't get picked up by Memeorandum. (It appears AP carried it on the wire. Why?) But they didn't seem to read the article; it focuses mostly on one station's listeners tuning out and one other station -- the sports talk station -- gaining. (Reminder: post hoc ergo propter hoc is a modus operandi at the STrib.) So forget waiting for PowerLine to answer this, Jesse. The two partisan stations in town are maintaining market share just fine, as you quoted but didn't recognize for what it was.

It isn't just a matter of politics, said Carol Grothem, broadcast manager for the Campbell Mithun ad agency. She suggested listeners may be turning more toward local talent and issues, and away from syndicated shows.

... The ratings shift hasn't affected partisan radio stations such as WWTC (1280 AM), known as the Patriot, or KTNF (950 AM), home to Air America programming, ...
Howdy! And note, the amateur station is minus one local non-monkey. Which reminds me...

Northwest strike: Settle in, it's going to be a bumpy month (or two) 

Since I'm already blogging on a Saturday -- regular readers know this is unusual -- I may as well put up a post on the Northwest strike. I was going to do this story on NARN today but Captain Ed has been running two excellent stories on Able Danger and Air Scamerica and we didn't have him last week, so we ran out of time. Stories that we have rather exclusively to the Alliance, in my opinion, should take precedence.

Besides, we're going to have lots of time on this one in my view. This strike will not end soon, and here's why.

The airline has been leading up to this strike for at least two years, and last night posted a press release saying they would run on time with replacement workers. Despite their best efforts, the local paper finds one traveler with a canceled flight and can't even make a connection to the strike. The AP report suggests things are going smoothly. Northwest had already planned to cut back flights and switched to its lighter fall schedule this morning.

These replacement workers have been lined up for a good while; many of them are mechanics with other airlines that are allied with Northwest, such as KLM. That's an important angle to the story, as outsourcing is probably at the base of this fight.

USA Today has a terrific piece outlining the run-up t