What to do about Iran? Given the NIE report released yesterday and these comments by Middle East expert Michael Ledeen, one answer could be, "Who knows?"

There is someone in the Cities who does have first hand knowledge and experience: A. John Radsan, the Founder and Director of the National Security Forum. He also is a former assistant general counsel at the CIA, a practicing attorney, and a law professor at William Mitchell Law School.

Dr. Radsan understands the culture, religion and politics of Iran. His main points at a luncheon at the Center of the American Experiment can be summarized as follows:
1 - Talk without action is useless - our enemy assumes we are weak.
2 - Perception is Al Qaeda (AQ) is the #1 problem - no, it's Iran's Islamic Republic. AQ has been damaged significantly but Iran actually is stronger than it was 9/11.
3 - Iran cannot be allowed to get nuclear weapons. Problem with destroying them is that they are located in multiple sites and thus, Dr. Radsan does not believe a military strike will work.

What will work?
1 - Dr. Radsan is a proponent of covert action, undermine Iran in a number of ways.
2 - Use media propaganda and blogs. Iranians read a lot of blogs, therefore, the US should use the blogs to discuss Iranian issues.
3 - Go after the Iranian financial assets, neutralize intelligence officers, remove diplomats. In other words, create hassles for their government.
4 - Iran, for all its oil, cannot refine it. Therefore, we should keep pressure on them to prevent refining it.

Why does he believe his suggestions can work?
Iranians blame their government for their problems, not the USA. If we attack overtly, it will cause major problems for their dissidents and they may turn against us. Iranians, 50% of whom are Persian, the others are Arabs, Kurds and other groups, have a very proud history. They understand the long-term and have long-term memories. We do not want to do something that will be to our detriment nor do we want to just sit on the sidelines and assume (ostrich position) that being nice will work. The political bosses of Iran want us gone.

Labels: Iran

More good news from Iraq. The the leading Shiite cleric in Iraq, the Ayatollah Ali Sistani, has just issued a Fatwa (ruling) banning the killing of Sunni Muslims. The announcement was made at a conference between Sunni and Shiite clerics in Najaf, Iraq, a religious city for Shi'a Muslims. In addition, Sheikh Khaled Al-Mulla, a conference leader, quoted Sistani saying, "I am a servant of all Iraqis, there is no difference between a Sunni, a Shiite or a Kurd or a Christian,"

We Americans rarely comprehend the impact these kind of religious edicts can have. For a leading Muslim cleric to issue a Fatwa banning the murder of other Muslims is simply huge. In addition, it appears the Ayatollah Sistani is being watched very closely in Shi'a Iran where another Ayatollah, the radical Khameini, is claiming the top position in Shi'a Islam. As a result of all the positive events and leadership seen in Iraq, many Iranians are sending their religious donations (not insurgents, thugs, murderers, etc.) to Sistani, the Iraqi cleric. A final point, Ayatollah Sistani believes in the separation of mosque and state, again, a huge breakthrough in thought.

These events follow an earlier breakthrough between the Iraqi government and the USA. In summary, Iraq is asking the UN to leave and the US to stay. They have concluded that the lies they heard over the years are just that - lies and that Americans are decent people. It would be nice if our mainstream media and Democrat Party could reach the same conclusion.

Labels: Iran, Iraq, US Soldiers

I was at the Patriot Saturday when Michael noted he received a press release from the Governor's office that said a deal he had agreed while in India regarding Essar Group's purchase of the Minnesota Steel and to construct a new plant in Hibbing. News reports describe the problem:

The Essar Group closed Monday on a deal to buy Minnesota Steel, planning to begin construction on a steel mill near Hibbing early next year -- a project that Pawlenty said holds great promise for the state of Minnesota. But later in the week, federal officials contacted the governor to inform him of Essar's possible ties to Iran.

Reuters reports that Essar plans to begin work on an $8 billion to $10 billion oil refinery in Iran early next year, working with the National Iranian Refining and Distribution Co. Such a deal may constitute or lead to business practices that are prohibited by the U.S. government. Pawlenty said Essar officials have confirmed talk in Iran, but say they do not have any commitments there.

If the federal government finds Essar's actions in Iran to be a violation of U.S. policy, Pawlenty said he would withdraw his support for the company's planned steel mill on the Iron Range.

The deal includes $30-60 million in state money for the Iron Range, and potentially scotching the deal has got the Ranger Mafia up in arms.

"It never ceases to amaze me how this governor can change his mind from one day to the next. It's frustrating that a project we've been working on for seven years is finally picked up on by the Twin Cities media a couple of days ago when the governor says it's going to be a good deal for the Range and state. Then days later, a complete reversal," said state Rep. Tom Rukavina, DFL-Virginia, in a telephone interview Sunday evening. ...

"I was stunned. This is so extraordinary. We were told the meeting with Essar went well (on Thursday) and then he gets back to Minnesota and immediately draws this line in the sand. I find it puzzling," said state Rep. Tom Anzelc, DFL-Balsam Township.

Anzelc said he had been out at some hunting shacks talking to some guys prior to next weekend's opening of the deer firearms season and had also been to an anniversary party.

"People are puzzled. But they're still upbeat. After all, we're Rangers," he said.

What on earth does that mean, "we're Rangers"? We're used to getting our way? We're used to getting easy money from the state?

So while the governor says "There are certain things in life that are more important than a steel mill," the Rangers think that trading with a company that deals with Iran is no big deal. All of a sudden, Rangers like globalization.

As to whether there should be a concern of a potential new corporation on the Iron Range and in Minnesota would have dealings with Iran, Anzelc said, "Sure it's a concern. But it's a concern that will always be there when you are engaging in a global economy with a very tense geo-political situation.

"We can't control all the countries of the world and all their actions. Essar is a company from India interested in building a steel mill using our iron ore because it's a steel company that has a market. Our traditional domestic steel interests don't have those interests available. That's why it's Essar," he said.

"Let's look at China. It's the largest communist country in the world with the third largest army. But we're sending them plenty of materials and they're sending back a lot of cheap goods that people buy ... not me. Look at Pakistan. Every T-shirt you see is made there and they're sheltering Osama (bin Laden, the architect of the 9-11 terrorist attacks that killed about 3,000 people in the United States). And we're worried about India building a refinery?" Rukavina said.

You know what? Give me a search warrant and fifteen minutes, and I bet I can find items from China and Pakistan in Rep. Rukavina's home.

But this isn't just trading any ol' thing. This is a refinery. One of the real possible places where the U.S. has leverage with Iran would be a military strike on the one refinery the country has. Iran would like very much to have another refinery to reduce that pressure; U.S. interests are clearly in keeping this from happening via peaceful means. Why the state of Minnesota should give money to that company that helps them build the plant is quite beyond my reasoning skills, but I'm no Ranger.

Labels: Iran, Minnesota, Pawlenty, politics