Thursday, December 24, 2009
Minnesota would just barely miss keeping its eight Congressional seats, based on an analysis of new state population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.I hope we don't have to depend on California continuing its slow slide to oblivion in order for us to keep eight seats, but that might be what it comes down to.
The Congressional reapportionment forecast by State Demographer Tom Gillaspy projects Missouri would receive the last seat apportioned, with Minnesota just missing by about 1,100 people � a difference of less than one month�s population change for Minnesota. The difference between California, Texas, Missouri and Minnesota for the last three seats is about 2,200 people, which is well within the potential estimating error.
�Basically, this is a dead heat,� said Gillaspy. �Remember, these are just estimates by the Census Bureau, and our chances of retaining eight seats are improving every day. What will decide the issue is getting everyone in Minnesota counted in the 2010 Census.� Every household in the state will receive the 10-question Census form in mid-March 2010, which should then be returned to the Census Bureau by April 1.
North and South Dakota each grew faster than Minnesota. In 2008 there were almost the same number of moving vans coming here as leaving, according to United Van Lines. I've got some students needing senior projects this spring; maybe to help settle the old discussion Charlie Quimby and I have had on this issue we should get one to play with the data. (Or maybe with the IRS data. I've wanted to have someone do this for awhile. Off to check references on Google Scholar. So far I find , , .  papers worth reading; not all appear to go in the same direction regarding the outcome. This note is a placeholder for that lucky student.)