Friday, October 03, 2008

Now it's nine 

Today's employment report puts the current decline in employment at a cumulative loss of 760,000 jobs since last December. The graph to your left repeats a graph I drew last month in which I noted the recession has been pretty wimpy. The data for August, however, makes it much less wimpy, and this first look at September, if it bears up in subsequent observations of that month's data, will make it nearly impossible to have a positive third quarter for GDP. Jim Hamilton considers the recession "a done deal".
...the purpose of the bailout proposal still being debated in Congress is not to prevent a U.S. recession-- the recession is a done deal. The purpose is to try to prevent the recession we're already in from being transformed into a severe contraction.
The Libor-OIS and TED spreads are at records. Krugman worries. 24 legislators have turned ... in time? Off to watch the vote.