In its report on the Ninth District (Minneapolis):

According to respondents to the recent St. Cloud (Minn.) Area Business Outlook Survey, 20 percent expect to hire more workers over the next six months, while 18 percent expect to decrease payrolls; in last year�s survey, 34 percent expected increases and 8 percent anticipated decreases. Overall increases in wages were moderate.

According to the aforementioned St. Cloud survey, 49 percent of respondents expect employee compensation to increase over the next six months, about the same as last year's survey.

Here's the full report. I have given two talks based on it this week; these are only a few of the warning signs we've seen.

The Beige Book consensus seems to be for slow growth but no recession. Seven of the twelve districts "reported a slight increase in activity, two reported mixed conditions, and activity in three Districts was described as slowing."

Labels: economics, Federal Reserve, St. Cloud