Saturday, January 16, 2010

Massachusetts, Scott Brown, the Numbers 

The range of polling results for the upcoming MA US Senate race have been inconsistent, but show an upward trend for the Republican candidate, Scott Brown. I don't often follow polls but in this race, they are interesting. MA is supposed to be a very blue state, perhaps the bluest so one would expect the polls to reflect a disproportionate number of Democrats as being polled.

Then I saw these surprising numbers in the WSJ: "And many people do not realize that independents outnumber Democrats�51% of registered voters in the state are not affiliated with a party, while 37% are registered as Democrats and 11% as Republicans." Hmmmm. Even with a 3+:1 advantage for Democrats, the percent of independents really impacts the results. If you add the independents and Republicans, the total is 62%. Another hmmmm. My non-statistical observations have led me to conclude that Independents vote for Democrats far more often the Republicans. If 'my' observations are correct, then the polls in MA showing Scott Brown even or ahead indicate that independents are moving right for whatever reason.

I still believe the result is still too close to predict and possibly, Coakley could end up with a huge win. But, then again, Brown may pull off an incredible win.

Jon Keller, author of the article and a political analyst for WBZ radio and TV in Boston, sums up the article with this observatin: "Are we in for another shot heard 'round the world? Perhaps. More likely, listen for the sound of horse hooves on the pavement, and a modern-day version of Paul Revere's historic warning�the backlash is coming."

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