Wednesday, November 11, 2009

We also have a hiring problem 

I simply want to display two graphs, both from the "JOLTS report" (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.) These are the rates at which labor is currently being hired and separated (fired/laid off only) as a share of employment. The separation rate is now back below 2%, but has not seemed to be too different from a deep recession. The dataset only begins in December 2000, so I can't look back further.

Now on the other hand, look at the drift in the hiring rate. That rate has continually declined since 2006 now reaching 3.5%. The economy is not generating as many new job opportunities for people as it did earlier in the decade, and it seems to have started before this recession. How quickly that number comes back tells us a great deal about whether or not the recession ends and how quickly the unemployment rate comes down.