Friday, July 03, 2009


This graph shows the unemployment rate compared to the stress test economic scenarios on a quarterly basis as provided by the regulators to the banks (no link).

This is a quarterly forecast: the Unemployment Rate in Q2 was higher than the "more adverse" scenario.

Note also that the unemployment rate has already exceeded the peak of the "baseline scenario".
From Calculated Risk, hat tip to Henry Blodget, who correctly adds:
The larger story here, unfortunately, is that the Obama administration continues to blow its credibility on the economy. By being too optimistic from the get-go, the administration is opening the door for critics and opponents who are already arguing that the Obama plan has failed.
The only surplus this administration has is in hubris. See my posts here and here for more on overselling your forecast.

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