Friday, March 13, 2009

Graph of the day 

From Casey Mulligan. The comparisons are month to same month a year ago, so the entries for January and February say total payroll tax revenues were slightly about the January and February levels in 2008. But real disposable personal income in the first quarter of 2008 was down, so hard to say if this is evidence in favor of a rebound in consumer spending. On the other hand, retail sales are looking up, continuing a trend for two of the four coincident indicators that are up. (BTW, it's the first time I noticed that leading indicators is up the last two months.)