Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Let's put it another way: On average, at seven months cumulative job loss for the last four recessions is 1,034,500 jobs; for this one, it's 463,000. There is no more than 500,000 more jobs on average lost in those last four recessions, most of which happens in the next four months. So we may have a recession in which cumulative job loss ends up around 0.5% of payroll employment. And then there'll be data revisions; very possibly they'll end up making that number larger, but suppose they find additional jobs in unmeasured areas?