Thursday, July 05, 2007

Where would the lines be? 

If trends don't turn around, Minnesota could lose congressional seat after 2010 census, says the Associated Press.
If current trends hold, that would mean southern states would gain congressional seats after the 2010 census while states in the Upper Midwest and the Northeast would probably lose out.

Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota's Humphrey Institute, said Minnesota's political influence would lessen if it lost a seat. The state would also lose an electoral vote in presidential elections and receive less money from the federal government, which considers population in determining how much to spend on such programs as Medicare and Medicaid.

The state plans to spend $300,000 over the next two years to ensure every Minnesotan is counted during the 2010 census.
As will the other states.

I suggest viewing this slide show (in .pdf) from the Demographic Office from May. What population growth might happen will be in older age groups. And what growth occurs happens in the ring counties around the Twin Cities. Sherburne County is expected to add more residents to it than will Hennepin -- Ramsey may decline. Anoka and Washington will grow faster than the state average. (Full data here.) It will be interesting to have that suburban shift and a loss of a Congressional seat happen at the same time, if we in fact do lose one.