Friday, November 11, 2005

Football -- calling a couple more shots 

I skipped last week because of work and lack of preparation, but this week we're back after a week where I was 2-1, but the loss was my big pick. So we start the bankroll at $1005 after the winnings on the two good picks. We're back with four more, including three road teams. The last two games here are as good bets as I've seen in a month.
  1. Cowboys (-3) at Eagles. I liked this game a lot when it went up, but so has everyone else. At Sportsbook it currently is running Cowboys -3 -125, Eagles +3 +105, which in short is making everyone pay for the half-point the book refuses to move. Even without the T.O. distraction, you have the Cowboys getting Julius Jones back, giving them two good backs to pound Philadelphia like Denver did. I'm unconvinced that the Eagles can stop the run. I'm going to take this game still for the Cowboys, but the price makes me go light. Bet $12.50 to win $10 on the Cowboys, laying three to the Eagles on Monday night.
  2. Packers at Falcons (-9.5). The Packers are quite simply snakebit, both by injuries and by a few close losses. Their last road game was the lighter bet for me two weeks ago against the Bengals. They are getting the same line from a team that hasn't the passing game the Bengals have, and they have the two ends that can box in Vick like the Jets did on Monday night a few weeks ago. The way things have gone for the green and gold, they'll lose on a last-second field goal, but no way is this going to be a blowout. Bet $33 on the Packers, getting nine-and-a-half in Atlanta. (I'm sure there'll be an OPG sighting after that.)
  3. Chiefs at Bills (-2.5). This line makes no sense. Sure, the Chefs are missing their Priest, but he's not been the best RB in KC when healthy this season. The Bills can't defense the run, and while they should be able to score on the Chiefs, they will give up at least 2 TDs to Larry Johnson. Bet $55 on the Chiefs, getting 2.5 at Buffalo.
  4. St. Louis at Seattle (-6.5). I thought Joe Vitt was the Lakers' trainer. What's he doing on the sidelines in St. Louis? If I didn't own LaDainian in fantasy football, I'd join everyone jumping on the Shawn Alexander bandwagon. Think Seattle doesn't remember that the Rams cost them a chance at the NFC title last year? This is a revenge game, and the Rams may or may not have their offensive weapons in place after a long absence -- so even if they're there, they're rusty. The Seahawk defense is underrated, too. Bet $55 on the home Seahawks against the Rams.