Monday, February 20, 2006

A short Ukrainian note 

The First Ring pointed out this NR column about the possibility that the forces defeated in the Orange Revolution -- particularly, the thuggish Viktor Yanukovych, who damn near turned out the army against the mass protests -- taking control of the parliament in Ukraine in elections next month. Forgive me for yawning. Polls in Ukraine are notoriously unreliable, as LEvko points out. And that contains its own danger:
The disparity in the OPs devalues the reliability of them all, which may be quite important because opinion polls during the 2004 Presidential elections persuaded some Yushchenko supporters that the elections had been rigged - helping spark off the O.R.
It's also worth noting that party alignments in the Rada shift rather frequently, so whatever the lineup of parliamentarians elected on March 26, we won't know the effect on the presidency of Viktor Yushchenko for a few months yet. He is proposing new constitutional changes, and it would be fun to see if he does the one thing really needed for reform there -- pull complete immunity away from parliamentarians.

Yushchenko's biggest worry continues to be the economy and that bad gas deal.