Friday, December 30, 2005
Preparing to kick 2005 down the road
Random thoughts as we prepare for the new year:
We're violating the usual quiet New Year's Eve celebration tomorrow thanks to a colleague who couldn't use tickets to a benefit for the St. Cloud Symphony. Mrs. S and I will dress up and go out on a New Year's Eve for the first time in about ten years. I intend to sneak back home in time to set off some fireworks with Littlest at midnight, a tradition we started last year.
Captain Ed's first mate is having some medical problems. Give up a prayer for her tonight and into the New Year. If you haven't given out all your gifts for the year, there was a neat editorial featuring WorldVision and the Heifer Project in the STrib. Give thanks.
I enjoy reading other people make predictions for the new year, since it's something I do much more regularly (though not as much as Bob, who's the go-to guy for St. Cloud weather.) I think in terms of probabilities and not inclined to say "X will happen in 2006". But I will say this much: While the national economy is unlikely to enter a recession in 2006 (I'll set the probability at 5%), there is a substantial probability that the housing industry will suffer some stress in several parts of the country, including St. Cloud. I make it a 20% probability that house prices nationwide fall by more than 5%.
We'll do resolutions and other year-end activities tomorrow on the Northern Alliance, which we'll do live 12-3pm. Barring more heavy snow, I'll be there. I'll be off the air the following two weekends for travel to conferences and back on the show on 1/21. With all that driving, I may not be back here until Monday, and so HAPPY NEW YEAR!
We're violating the usual quiet New Year's Eve celebration tomorrow thanks to a colleague who couldn't use tickets to a benefit for the St. Cloud Symphony. Mrs. S and I will dress up and go out on a New Year's Eve for the first time in about ten years. I intend to sneak back home in time to set off some fireworks with Littlest at midnight, a tradition we started last year.
Captain Ed's first mate is having some medical problems. Give up a prayer for her tonight and into the New Year. If you haven't given out all your gifts for the year, there was a neat editorial featuring WorldVision and the Heifer Project in the STrib. Give thanks.
I enjoy reading other people make predictions for the new year, since it's something I do much more regularly (though not as much as Bob, who's the go-to guy for St. Cloud weather.) I think in terms of probabilities and not inclined to say "X will happen in 2006". But I will say this much: While the national economy is unlikely to enter a recession in 2006 (I'll set the probability at 5%), there is a substantial probability that the housing industry will suffer some stress in several parts of the country, including St. Cloud. I make it a 20% probability that house prices nationwide fall by more than 5%.
We'll do resolutions and other year-end activities tomorrow on the Northern Alliance, which we'll do live 12-3pm. Barring more heavy snow, I'll be there. I'll be off the air the following two weekends for travel to conferences and back on the show on 1/21. With all that driving, I may not be back here until Monday, and so HAPPY NEW YEAR!
