Tuesday, May 10, 2005

Put $2 on Lampley's nose and see if it grows 

The Warrior Monk does a useful service fisking the snot out of Jim Lampley. Let me add only one observation: Jim Lampley either doesn't know what he's talking about, or he's lying.

Here's the graph of the Iowa Electronics Market winner-take-all options on Bush versus Kerry. Politicalbetting reported that Tradesports had Bush at 54.5 (meaning a 54.5% chance of winning), and reports only one bookie showing a surge in Kerry betting late. As best I can tell late money moved onto Bush most everywhere else. None of them had Kerry anywhere near 2-1 favorite.