Captain Ed reviews the latest machinations of Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine, who is rattling sabres with the threat of secession or armed insurrection after the re-vote on December 26. Ed concludes:

Yanukovych's public support is drying up, making it highly unlikely that he will retain control of Ukrainian security forces after another election debacle like the last. If he loses a fair election -- an almost certain outcome now -- he won't have a prayer of convincing the military to install him in a putsch. That may not keep him from trying it, and today's missive shows that Yanukovych intends on keeping his options open.

As I pointed out earlier this week, we now are fairly sure there was an attempt to do this on November 28th, before the Ukrainian Supreme Court ordered the revote. Yanukovych could not persuade Kuchma then to follow through on the threat. To make his threats work now when they did not then is patently absurd.

Viktor Yushchenko, the opposition candidate, is worried about provocations as well. I suppose he should be, but this strikes me more as being cautious than worried. If I was to worry about anything it would be that Yanukovych pulls out of the race and then makes noises of armed revolt. Remember that if Ya. pulls out after tomorrow, Yu. will need 50% of votes cast to win the presidency, which may be a higher hurdle for him than to simply win a plurality over Ya. Noises over the stability of eastern Ukraine could help Yanukovych's and Kuchma's causes. But Yanukovych is still campaigning like a guy who is trying to win.

Yushchenko thinks he's in good shape, eschewing rallies to talk to business leaders in eastern Ukraine to convince them not to support Yanukovych.

Interestingly, the Ukrainian government is proposing to increase transit fees for Russian gas headed to Europe.