Monday, November 01, 2004

Ukraine update 

According to a private list I read, the first round of the Ukrainian presidential elections has ended up roughly tied between Viktor Yanukovych and Viktor Yushchenko. According to that report, the anaonymous exit polls had Yushchenko up 44-38 and the open polls (where the respondent was identified by name to the pollster, who was working for Yanukovych) had Yanukovych up 43-39. Public reports put Yanukovuych currently up between 1-4% depending on which count they've taken as official.

The question now is what happens to the other 15-18% voting for minor candidates. Only one has indicated he may support Yushchenko, but even if the 3rd and 5th place finishers were to throw to Yanukovych, that would not necessarily get him to 50%. It seems likely that whatever the outcome, it will be within the margin for fraud.