Monday, November 01, 2004
When I put my picks in the pools I play in, I had NJ, NH, and NM going for Bush, getting us to 321, a little less than I gave Bush against a generic Democrat in January when NARN first formed under the aegis of the commissioner. I punted on NJ on the last pool due to the lack of follow-through of campaigning in NJ by Bush. I've backed off this iteration based on some email and calls to friends in NH, , and just a gut feel that Richardson is going to tip NM to Kerry. It won't matter, as the final result is still 297-241 Bush. The Democrats will have to litigate two big states -- Ohio and Florida, most likely -- to reverse this, and I don't think they will be able to do that.