The National Association of Business Economists Economic Outlook
says happy days are here again.
�The so-called 'soft patch' is receding into the background, providing a strong backdrop to the holiday selling season ,� said Carl Tannenbaum , Chair of the NABE Outlook Survey committee and Chief Economist at LaSalle Bank in Chicago. Tannenbaum added, �Our panel expects the new year to bring us the gifts of lower oil prices, lower unemployment, and continued expansion.�
Other notes from the survey:
- Concur with Alan Greenspan that the dollar and the trade deficit look worse.
- $46 oil by end of this year, $40 at end of 2005.
- 31 of 32 respondents expect the S&P500 to rise next year; 14 make the rise at greater than 10%.
- The budget deficit would fall to $340 billion next year after this year's $412b (which was a downward revision from $422 expected last September).
- 28 of 32 said they did not revise their forecast on the basis of the Bush victory, which makes me think most thought Bush would win.