Monday, November 01, 2004

Minnesota snapshot 

Courtesy of pollster and colleague Steve Frank of the SCSU Survey, here are the latest poll results:

Monday morning update

Pollster Polling Date Bush Kerry Nader MoE
Zogby ($) October 31 46.8% 49.4% --- 4.1%
Gallup October 30 44.0% 52.0% 1.0% 3.0%
Rasmussen ($) October 30 48.0% 47.0% --- ??
Minnesota Poll October 29 41.0% 49.0% 1.0% 3.1%
Mason-Dixon October 29 48.0% 47.0% --- 4.0%
Strategic Vision ($, GOP)
October 26 49.0% 47.0% 1.0% 3.0%
Humphrey Institute
October 26 47.0% 44.0% 5.0% 4.0%
St. Cloud State Univ.
October 26 42.0% 49.0% --- 4.5%

Steve dropped me a few notes over the last several days after his poll came out, and the gist of them was that "polls don't predict". That is, they're a snapshot of what the electorate was thinking at a particular time, not whether or not that will be the outcome on election day. Still, Steve Landsberg, guesting at Marginal Revolution, notes that the fascination with margins of error still belies the fact that a lead is a lead is a lead. Also at MR, Tyler Cowen wonders whether undecideds might not all jump one way, and if so why. For those of us educated in public choice, as Prof. Cowen is, it's a fascinating thought.

My map later today.

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