In Frankfurt they're taking bets on the winner of the Nobel Prize in economics (for all the Nobels, actually). Ed Prescott and Robert Barro are the top getters right now, though Thomas Schelling seems to have some support as well. I was talking with a colleague at lunch, and we both think Gordon Tullock is deserving (as Tyler Cowen points out), but having given the prize only to James Buchanan already it's hard to think he'll get it for his public choice work. How come nobody is trading shares in Jagdish Bhagwati?

Dark horse but good choice: Oliver Williamson.