Tuesday, September 07, 2004

Odd calculations. 

Somebody tell me if I've done this right. If you took the Tradesports price for the contracts that Bush wins each of the 50 states (plus DC) and divided by 100, would that be the probability of a Bush win? If so, then taking that number and multiplying each state's probability by the electoral votes of the state should give us an expected value of Bush's Electoral College votes. As of about 7pm CT tonight, that would be 335-202 over Kerry. IIRC, 335 was about the number I had in a private pool with Hugh Hewitt from a NA meeting in January (Hugh, post those predictions, please.)

Again, that's if I have interpreted the price of that contract correctly. I can't see why it wouldn't be correct, but something tells me it shouldn't be that easy. I'll update that number on the Friday macro review each week.