Wednesday, September 08, 2004

FREEPers do stats 

The fine folks at FreeRepublic have an analysis of the TradeSports local markets going as well. They are using a different method than me, it appears, and arrive at a much lower vote total, but still put the probability of a Bush victory at 65%. With the price in the Iowa winner-take-all market at $.56 to win $1, there is still some arbitrage opportunities available here. Thanks to commenter SoCalRocket for the pointer.