Third quarter 2008 data for gross job gains and gross job losses is out this morning. The only sector that added jobs in Q3 was health and education (which is a strong sector up here in St. Cloud as well.) What is telling in the data for Minnesota (see Tables 5 and 6 infra.) is that the rate of gross job creation collapsed in 2008 from 6.5% of the workforce in September 2007 to 5.7% in September 2008. In the 2001 recession, the rate of gross job losses increased by much more (from 7.3% in 2000Q4 to 8.1% in 2001Q3; so far we've gone from 6.5% in 2007Q4 to 6.9% in 2008Q3.) The rate of gross job losses is relatively constant over the period.

Firms are not hiring more; could it be their expectations about future tax liabilities? We don't have data before 1992, so it's hard to do more than wonder.

Labels: economics