Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Maybe a little too far? 

Two pieces of economic news worth noting early this week. First, the Survey of Professional Forecasters from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve out yesterday shows revisions downward for real GDP, interest rates and inflation. And this morning we find out producer price inflation was sharply negative. So the stories of the US economy doing really well going into the midterm elections strike me as contrary to where forecasters and the current data are. Not that I think it mattered much.

All should come to the same conclusion the current implied probabilities for the Fed funds rate going forward: Flat for the foreseeable future. The Fed has gone far enough, and maybe one step beyond. CPI numbers come out Thursday, so stay tuned.

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