Monday, August 28, 2006
- The current expected value for next summer's price of oil is $74.60. I think that sounds about right -- maybe a few dollars higher than what I answered, but the difference is certainly insignificant.
- If Iran stops exporting, the median expectation is that the price would go to $90.40. The most common answer (that's the mode) is $100. I believe I answered right near the median; Iran has about 10% of world reserves, but exports probably only 3% of world output.
- If Saudi Arabian and Kuwaiti oil supplies were cut by conflict, then the expected price rises to $119.80 according to the survey.
- When asked which statement agreed most with their opinion, almost half said "The world still has enough oil, but our dependence on the Middle East is a major problem and we need to use less." Less than ten percent felt the statement "There is plenty of oil, current problem caused by the politics of the Middle East" most closely matched theirs and 6% said there was plenty of oil and that the Middle East will settle down. 16% said regardless of how much oil we hve, "global warming is a major disaster and we need to cut back on fossil fuels."
Top three answer to "what do you think is the US's greatest economic strength today": flexible economy and labor force; technological lead and strongh productivity; deep capital markets.