Sunday, December 26, 2004

Early returns likely to favor Yushchenko 

One thing to note in the electoral results by regions: the first precincts reporting are likely to be more pro-Yushchenko than the country as a whole. With 30% of the vote counted (and with Yushchenko holding still an 18-point lead) only 7% of Luhansk has reported, an area that went heavily for Yanukovych last time.

So expect that lead to close some as the evening progresses, though the question will remain how big a turnout in Donetsk and Luhansk will be, and the extent to which Yanukovych's people are going to claim vote suppression there.

UPDATE: Turnout overall this time (station readings from 8pm local time): 80.9% on November 21st, 76.9% this time. There will be claims of suppression, but 77% voting looks pretty darn good to me, and the difference could be accounted for by the allegations of ballot-stuffing last time. I'm kicking around the CEC website and drawing some comparisons in the regions. Compare these numbers to the maps I posted last month.

Pro-Yanokovych regions
"Oblast" Turnout Nov.21 Turnout Dec.26
Donetsk 96.7% 85.7%
Luhansk 89.5% 83.1%
Kharkiv 78.1% 73.9%

Pro-Yushchenko areas
"Oblast" Turnout Nov.21 Turnout Dec.26
Lviv 83.5% 83.3%
IvanoFrankivsk 82.4% 85.3%