Tuesday, October 05, 2004

October jobs report with extra news? 

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the annual revision to the payroll jobs data could be revised upward between 288-384 thousand jobs between March 2003 and March 2004. (Here's the Reuters report, since the WSJ link is for subscribers only.) Even if jobs number comes at the low end of that estimate, it would close by about a third the gap between current job levels and those at the height of the expansion that ended at the beginning of the Bush Administration. The September payroll figures are forecasted to have grown 145,000 additional jobs.

These are not yet official numbers; we would have to see the BLS figures on Friday. But if these figures add up to a net addition of 450k or more, it would take a good bit of steam out of any argument John Kerry might make at the second debate on the jobless recovery. Bush will not have to rely on the household jobs data so much, which is currently showing 2.23 million jobs created since the start of his term.