Thursday, October 28, 2004
41 blue balls, 32 red balls, and a lagging indicator
Steve Frank, one of the SCSU pollsters (and the regular reader, he says), says his poll "is not one of those quickie, overnight polls," and indeed they took the poll over a 7 day period 10/19-26(skipping Fridays and Saturdays.) Somehow that is supposed to be a better measure, yet Rasmussen's poll over 10/20-26, also has Bush up 3 here.
This poll is causing the RealClearPolitics number to show an average of Kerry 1.0%. Were the poll removed and the other three averaged, it would be Bush up 1%. I don't know what to think of the SCSU Survey, but I do have to wonder about a survey that has such a heavy weight of Democrats (and in a survey where the independent/Independence vote was 38-36 Kerry.)
UPDATE: You're welcome, Chumley. And this just in: Zogby now says Bush +1.