Monday, January 19, 2004

Kerry pressing 

After a 50/50 weekend with football -- I think the late hit on McNabb prevented my vindication, but that's why it's called gambling -- I thought I'd go back and look at Tradesport prices on the Iowa caucus again. Kerry is stabilizing around a 40% probability and Dean is dropping to around 35-40%. (You're looking at roughly 3-2 odds on either one.) Gephardt has fallen to 10% probability. He is toast in less than 24 hours.

Early NH lines via Tradesports: Dean 2-3, Kerry 4-1, Clark 5-1.